SAT 15:00 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
33
10-3
66
85
40
32%
99
79
23.8
+285
+10.5
HOME
25
6-7
66
29
62
59%
41
61
34.3
-360
-10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSYR33—CAL25
CLOSED CAL -10.5TOTAL 58.0SYR COVERED · 58 POINTS · PUSH
SYR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADCAL -10.5
IMPLIED — SYR23.8
IMPLIED — CAL34.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
SYRRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD7-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
SYRACUSE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
CALIFORNIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSECALIFORNIA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB79%Garrett ShraderQB · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL60%Caleb OkechukwuDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevon DartonPORTAL · ARIZONA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry Lockett Jr.PORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Jason Simmons Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah JohnsonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah WilsonPORTAL · HOUSTON · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Leon Lowery Jr.PORTAL · WISCONSIN · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStefon ThompsonPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE38%Donovan BrownWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamien AlfordPORTAL · UTAH · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah JonesWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL21%Christopher BleichOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB21%Juwaun PricePORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKyle McCord · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEJakhari Williams · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLFadil Diggs · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MIsaiah Hastings · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMADion Wilson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDevin Grant · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALODuce Chestnut · PORTAL ★3 · LSUClarence Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEZeed Haynes · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJustus Ross-Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEJackson Meeks · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJoshua Miller · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAREFILLED
RBYasin Willis · SIGNEE ★3Jaden Hart · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.358 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.758 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.155 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656594063 OF 6 GRADED
RB6262648285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE636366621815 OF 18 GRADED
OL626255652114 OF 21 GRADED
DL505076381512 OF 15 GRADED
LB575742761513 OF 15 GRADED
DB595976482119 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO19%69
RECRUITING CLASS#38 · 4/25 BC72
CLASS RANK TREND+30 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 19 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALJUSTIN WILCOX8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRFRAN BROWNFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE SYR QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=2135% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS39% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE SYR RUNNING BACKSn=818% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555265%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE SYR PASS CATCHERSn=1838% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS46.9%
48.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS84.0%
70.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE