BLUE CHIP RATIO > 50% — THE LINE EVERY CHAMPION HAS CLEARED
CLASSESPIPELINE & OUTCOMES
CYCLE2026
STATED FACTS · ORDERED BY DEFENSIBILITYHOW THIS ORDER IS SET
LEDGER · BLUE CHIP RATIOSTABILITY HIGH
TEXAS A&M SIGNED 22 BLUE CHIPS OF 27 — 82%
FOURTEEN of the 138 classes on this ledger sit at or above the 50% line. That line is a record of what past champions had entered their title seasons with — it is not a threshold anybody has to clear.
COUNTED FROM THE SIGNING RECORD · 138 RANKED CLASSES
SEAM · MEASURED AGAINST CITEDSTABILITY MED
NORTH DAKOTA STATE PLAYS 54 PERCENTILE POINTS ABOVE ITS RECRUITING
Talent percentile 5 against an SP+ percentile of 59. The rating is the services' work; the SP+ standing is measured. Where the two disagree, both are still shown.
TALENT AND SP+ PERCENTILES · SEASON SCOPED FBS
HONESTY · THE BANDS OVERLAPSTABILITY MED
THE MIDDLE HALF OF 5-STAR DLs SPANS 34 TO 84
Across 104 player seasons the median reached 66, and half of them landed anywhere inside a 50-point band. A tier median cannot be applied to an individual recruit, and this is why.
n=104 PLAYER SEASONS · REAL QUARTILES, NOT A BAND AROUND A MEAN
CLASS LEDGER & TALENT STOCKCLASS RKBC%TAL OVER PRODPROD OVER TAL
CLS RANK, STARS AND MEAN RATING ARE CITED FROM THE COMPOSITE SERVICES · BC%, TAL, PROD AND GAP ARE MEASURED BY USCLICK A TEAM FOR ITS SIGNED CLASS AND PIPELINE
DOES PEDIGREE DELIVERDBDLLBOLQBRBTEWR
COHORT PRODUCTION — WRMEDIAN · IQR · n
TIER
MED
IQR SPREAD
IQR
n
★58571–93n=77
★47448–88n=791
★37045–87n=1930
★26943–87n=206
UNR6844–87n=875
5-STAR OUTPRODUCES 2-STAR BY 15 PERCENTILE POINTS AT THE MEDIAN AND ITS 25TH CLEARS THE LOWER MEDIAN — THE TIERS SEPARATE
DEVELOPMENT CURVE — WRCHANGE PER CLASS-YEAR STEP
STEP
MED Δ
SPREAD
IQR
n
SEASON 1→20-4 to +11n=1252
SEASON 2→30-3 to +5n=656
SEASON 3→40-3 to +5n=188
THE LARGEST STEP IS 1→2 AT 0 PERCENTILE POINTS · A QUARTER OF PLAYERS GO BACKWARDS ON AT LEAST ONE STEP
PLAYERS vs THEIR COHORTSTANDING IS MEASURED, NEVER PROJECTED
Cohort figures group every measured FBS player season by his composite star rating out of high school and his position group, then report the distribution of the production percentiles those players reached — real quartiles of a real population, not a band drawn around a mean. Development steps take the same population and measure the change in production percentile between a player's consecutive measured seasons. The step is a season, not a class year: nothing in this data states a class year reliably. Every figure carries the number of players or transitions behind it.
WHAT IT DOES NOT SAY
None of it forecasts an individual. A five star below his cohort median has produced less than half the five stars before him — a measured standing, not a verdict on his career, and the width of every band is the reason. Star ratings, class ranks and mean ratings are the composite services' work; the outcome evidence is ours, and neither is a pick.
STARS, MEAN RATINGS AND CLASS RANKINGS ARE CITED FROM THE COMPOSITE RECRUITING SERVICES — THEY ARE NOT OUR MEASUREMENT · BLUE CHIP RATIO, TALENT, PRODUCTION, COHORT AND CURVE FIGURES ARE MEASURED BY US
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL, ALWAYS SHOWN · BLUE CHIP MEANS RATED ★4 OR BETTER
THE 50% BLUE CHIP LINE IS A HISTORICAL RECORD OF PAST CHAMPIONS · EVERY COHORT AND CURVE MEDIAN CARRIES ITS SPREAD AND SAMPLE SIZE, AND NONE IS A PROJECTION FOR AN INDIVIDUAL