SAT 19:30 ET|ABC|HARD ROCK STADIUM · MIAMI GARDENS FLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
NDINDNOTRE DAME
12-2
91
74
69
64%
58
74
26.0
+118
+2.5
HOME
MIAACCMIAMI
10-3
74
72
62
41%
74
61
28.5
-140
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DK FD MGM CZR
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · PRESEASON
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDSNAP PACEW3PASS RATE / PROEW3SUCCESS RATEW4TARGET / CARRY SHAREW4EPA PER PLAYW5EXPLOSIVENESSW7FINISHING DRIVESW9TURNOVER MARGINNEVEREACH NUMBER FLIPS FROM CARRIED TO MEASURED ON ITS OWN SCHEDULE
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADMIA −2.5
IMPLIED — ND26.0
IMPLIED — MIA28.5
TOTAL RANK9 / 12
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
81FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by seven positions on a twelve-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST — NEITHER SIDE SLOWS THE OTHER
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD OVERSTATES
12-2ACTUALvs10.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD4-1
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.9
Twelve wins, a scoring profile describing ten. The market prices the record; the scoring profile is the other description of the same season.
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE−0.6 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD2-3
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.1
Ten wins against a scoring profile describing between ten and eleven. The record and the underlying performance say the same thing.
TEAM LEDGERNOTRE DAMEMIAMIWEEK 0 · NO GAMES PLAYED · 0 OF 12
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB42%J. LOVEDRAFTED · 42% OF CARRIES
DB41%X. WATTSDRAFTED · TOP SAFETYROTATIONTWO DEPTH BACKS
WR/TE39%B. TYREE22% OF TARGETSE. RALEIGH17% OF TARGETS
DL34%J. MILLSSTARTING ENDROTATIONTWO DEPTH LINEMEN
LB29%H. LIUFAU29% OF FRONT SNAPS
OL26%C. RIEDINGEROT · 68% SNAP SHAREP. FISHEROG · 55% SNAP SHARE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBK. GREATHOUSE · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBT. GRAY · PORTAL ★4 · LSUPARTIAL
WR/TEW. LOVE · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIATWO SIGNEES ★4PARTIAL
DLL. NOLAN · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLG. MERRIWEATHER · PORTAL ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NOTRE DAME
CARRIED COMPOSITE
71.283 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
74.184 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.976 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB787688922468 OBS
RB666471583741 OBS
WR/TE6159746151,884 OBS
OL8180867453,110 OBS
DL7674846641,940 OBS
LB7978847131,610 OBS
DB7472865942,410 OBS
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO71%71
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 18/24 BC91
CLASS POINTS TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 4 IN / 4 OUT66
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4TH YR78
DEV TRANSITION MIX38%74
EVERY ROW HERE IS A PRESEASON INPUT
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN4TH SEASON HERE4 SEASONS · 1 TEAM
BASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR · THIS PROGRAMME'S PRIOR SEASON
IDENTITY STABILITY WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PROE|1.9n=1,072
|Δ PACE|1.1sn=1,072
|Δ PASS RATE|3.2%n=1,072
|Δ HAVOC|2.1%n=1,072
MEDIAN AND INTERQUARTILE SPREAD ACROSS 1,072 TEAM-SEASONS, 2016–2025 · A RETURNING STAFF MOVES LESS, BUT IT DOES MOVE
MIASHANNON DAWSONFIRST SEASON HERE9 SEASONS · 4 TEAMS
BASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR · CAREER FINGERPRINT
LEAGUE-WIDE SHIFT AFTER A COACHING CHANGE
|Δ PROE|4.8n=214
|Δ PACE|2.6sn=214
|Δ PASS RATE|7.1%n=214
|Δ HAVOC|3.9%n=214
MEDIAN AND INTERQUARTILE SPREAD ACROSS 214 CHANGES, 2016–2025 · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE ND QUARTERBACKSn=2 · 468 OBS0% VACATED
PROJECTED
EPA/DB
EXPL
FPT/G
★
C.J. CARRQBRETUNCONTESTED
+0.2414.1%19.8★5K. MINCHEYQBRET
−0.029.4%2.1★4ATTEMPT SHARE IS SETTLED — EFFICIENCY, EXPLOSIVENESS AND FANTASY SCORING REPLACE SHARE AND USAGE AT THIS POSITION · HALF-PPR
MIA FULL DEFENSE3 ROOMS · 4,120 OBS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.276654%0.48LINEBACKERSLB
0.185861%0.39THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — ROOMS BLENDED BY WEIGHT, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=7 · 3,110 OBS26% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
SNAP
TAL
EXP
★
A. SULLIVANOTRET
98%914 YR★4B. NELSONOGRET
94%883 YR★4R. HUFANGACLAST YR ≈
88%612 YR★3G. MERRIWEATHEROGPORTAL ★3 · PURDUE
76%583 YR★3THREE OF FIVE STARTING SPOTS RETURN · LINEMEN SCORE NO FANTASY POINTS AND CARRY NO USAGE — PEDIGREE AND EXPERIENCE CARRY THE ROOM INSTEAD
MIA FRONT-7 · PASS RUSHn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
PRSS
RSTP
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%12.1%68%★4F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%14.4%61%★3W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%6.2%64%★4T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%3.1%51%★4M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%9.4%49%★4DEFENSIVE LINE AND LINEBACKERS BLENDED 0.60 / 0.40 · PRESSURE AND RUN-STOP ARE THE LINE'S SIDE OF THE MATCHUP
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE ND RUNNING BACKSn=4 · 741 OBS42% VACATED
K. GREATHOUSERBTRUE FR
24%12—★4NO BACK CLEARS THE 55% CONCENTRATION MARK — CARRIES SPLIT THREE WAYS · FPT/G IS LAST SEASON'S HALF-PPR SCORING IN A DIFFERENT ROLE
MIA FRONT-7 · RUN FRONTn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
RSTP
TFL
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%68%8.4%★4F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%61%9.1%★3W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%64%6.1%★4T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%51%3.2%★4M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%49%5.9%★4SAME FRONT-7, WEIGHTED 0.55 / 0.45 FOR THE BACKFIELD · RUN-STOP AND TACKLE-FOR-LOSS REPLACE THE PASS-RUSH COLUMN
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSESECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE ND PASS-CATCHERSn=7 · 1,884 OBS39% VACATED
J. FAISONWRRET
24%5810.8★4C. GREATHOUSEWRLAST YR ≈
19%346.1★4W. LOVEWRPORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA
16%417.9★3FOUR PLAYERS BETWEEN 16% AND 24% TARGET SHARE — NOBODY REACHES THE 45% MARK · NO RETURNING PASS-CATCHER CLEARED 11 FPT/G
MIA SECONDARYn=7 · 2,240 OBS36% VACATED
SECONDARY BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
COV
BALL
★
O. STROUDCBPORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON
22%6674★4J. OKONKWOSTRUE FR
12%——★4THE MOST INTACT UNIT ON THIS DEFENSE — TWO STARTING CORNERS AND A SAFETY RETURN
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION-GROUP GRADES ABOVE
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.28
1.34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.11
1.31
TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THE FIVE YEAR OVER YEAR AND IS WEIGHTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE STATED-FACT ORDER
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.1%
44.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS81.4%
88.2%
GARBAGE-TIME SHARE9.1%
12.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY-BY-PLAY — NO CHARTED-ALIGNMENT INPUTS · PROE IS PACE-ADJUSTED · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE