SAT 19:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
1-11
35
2
7
22%
4
35
14.5
+1600
+27.5
HOME
58
8-5
28
55
45
39%
93
23
42.0
-4000
-27.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSM3—TXST58
CLOSED TXST -27.5TOTAL 56.5TXST COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
USM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
USM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=53
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADTXST -27.5
IMPLIED — USM14.5
IMPLIED — TXST42.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 53-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
USMRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.3-10.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-22.5
SOUTHERN MISS won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.8
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTHERN MISSTEXAS STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB89%Hayes MaplesLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSwayze BozemanLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh Carr Jr.LB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB88%Billy WilesPORTAL · APP STATE · 82% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHolman EdwardsPORTAL · HOUSTON · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE86%Jakarius CastonWR · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole CavalloTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatreal JonesWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL77%Gerquan ScottPORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBriason MaysOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce RamseyPORTAL · MARSHALL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB63%Frank Gore Jr.RB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntavious WillisRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB45%Jay StanleyS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ DanielsCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarkel McLaurinPORTAL · ALCORN STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL29%Quentin BivensDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh RatcliffDT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBDante Kelly · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTDesmyn Baker · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYChris Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBTate Rodemaker · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJohn White · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEKyirin Heath · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSDannis Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIReed Jesiolowski · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLJo Cryer · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDontae Lucas · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMALarry Edwards · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJalen Washington · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBraxton Myers · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEWill James · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDamion Miller · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJonathan Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATECaleb Bryant · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATERyan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · AKRON6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTHERN MISS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.711 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.52 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.439 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4444154253 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333409265 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE454558382112 OF 21 GRADED
OL282830461612 OF 16 GRADED
DL474748692014 OF 20 GRADED
LB444437301211 OF 12 GRADED
DB444443532416 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE35th35
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%28
RECRUITING CLASS#77 · 0/15 BC43
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 7 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USMWILL HALL4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSM OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE USM QUARTERBACKSn=558% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS58% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE USM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1654% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTHERN MISS OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE USM RUNNING BACKSn=68% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS57% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557559%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTHERN MISS OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE USM PASS CATCHERSn=2162% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+32
−39
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.1%
58.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.4%
59.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USM, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE