TUE 20:00 ET|YAGER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U43.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
8-5
10
30
79
60%
78
—
20.8
+102
+1.5
HOME
20
9-5
20
37
58
60%
1
28
22.3
-122
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNIU9—M-OH20
CLOSED M-OH -1.5TOTAL 43.0M-OH COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
NIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
M-OH
NIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
M-OH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL43.0
SPREADM-OH -1.5
IMPLIED — NIU20.8
IMPLIED — M-OH22.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NIURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.7
MIAMI (OH) won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHERN ILLINOISMIAMI (OH)2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB91%Rocky LombardiQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB68%DaRon GilbertLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler JacksonLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL40%Nolan PotterOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPete NygraPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE31%Davis PattersonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnsonWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKacper RutkiewiczWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%James EsterDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge Gumbs Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB10%Devin LafayettePORTAL · TROY · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB2%Christian NashPORTAL · SIOUX FALLS · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJalen Macon · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFLuke Marble · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBChristian Fuhrman · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEMarc Pretto · PORTAL ★3 · FORDHAMAJ Guida · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBen Gustafson · SIGNEE ★3Grey Rumohr · SIGNEE ★3Lane Mahnesmith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEJake Appleget · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAAndrew McElroy · PORTAL ★3 · ST. THOMASKenji Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLIvan Moore Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Ross Liegel · SIGNEE ★3Lance Ingold · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBDev'ion Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBAhmir Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
66.090 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.485 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.782 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4242356653 OF 5 GRADED
RB2828258397 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE353538722114 OF 21 GRADED
OL515121941811 OF 18 GRADED
DL545437882014 OF 20 GRADED
LB37372562157 OF 15 GRADED
DB575738852316 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE10th10
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#99 · 0/24 BC26
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 3 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK6TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNIU OFFENSEM-OH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE NIU QUARTERBACKSn=534% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS16% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE NIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=186% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI (OH) DEFENSE NIU RUNNING BACKSn=917% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553681%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHERN ILLINOIS OFFENSESECONDARYMIAMI (OH) DEFENSE NIU PASS CATCHERSn=2128% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
M-OH SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM19% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−30
−31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
M-OH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.1%
51.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.5%
61.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NIU, ORANGE = M-OH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE