SAT 12:00 ET|AMFIRST STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
11
10-3
18
8
52
43%
82
—
26.0
+164
+5.5
HOME
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 21
9-5
8
49
13
40%
66
11
31.5
-198
-5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSHSU11—JXST21
CLOSED JXST -5.5TOTAL 57.5JXST COVERED · 32 POINTS · UNDER
SHSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
JXST
SHSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
JXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADJXST -5.5
IMPLIED — SHSU26.0
IMPLIED — JXST31.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
SHSURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.2
SAM HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs9.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.8
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAM HOUSTONJACKSONVILLE STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Keegan ShoemakerQB · 94% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Da'Marcus Crosby IIPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDakerric HobbsPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah DownesDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Trevor WilliamsLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarkel PerryLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL42%Akeem SmithDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris ScottDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB27%Adrian MurdaughRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTobias WeaverRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE24%Al'vonte WoodardWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJax SherrardTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL11%D'Ary PattonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJase Bauer · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANDJ Bailey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJaylon Jimmerson · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYJoe Swen · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATENyquee Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBChatavies Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISDean Ford · SIGNEE ★3Mitch Melton · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDylan Frazier · PORTAL ★3 · SMUMarcus Moore · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASQuincy Wright · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJay Ducker · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISREFILLED
WR/TEFernando Garza III · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MAustin Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISKarson Maynard · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAM HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.779 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.496 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.146 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB343430052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3636561574 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454544662314 OF 23 GRADED
OL535354801712 OF 17 GRADED
DL383835682014 OF 20 GRADED
LB38383895168 OF 16 GRADED
DB515140622212 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%22
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/11 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 5 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JXSTRICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SHSUK.C. KEELER2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSHSU OFFENSEJXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE SHSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS47% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE SHSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1720% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE SHSU RUNNING BACKSn=785% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552563%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAM HOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE SHSU PASS CATCHERSn=2334% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM51% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
−40
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.6%
76.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.0%
58.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
2.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SHSU, ORANGE = JXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE