SAT 14:30 ET|JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
36
3-9
7
3
11
14%
50
—
25.3
+136
+3.5
HOME
21
3-9
19
17
1
56%
18
—
28.8
-162
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNMSU36—MTSU21
CLOSED MTSU -3.5TOTAL 54.0NMSU COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
NMSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MTSU
NMSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MTSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADMTSU -3.5
IMPLIED — NMSU25.3
IMPLIED — MTSU28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
NMSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.7
NEW MEXICO STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MTSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATEMIDDLE TENNESSEE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Diego PaviaPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB81%Myles RowserPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ ScularkCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. DervilPORTAL · NORTHERN IOWA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Gabe PetersonPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIzaiah ReedDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGabriel Iniguez Jr.PORTAL · UTAH STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE75%Jonathan BradyPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThomaz WhitfordTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HudsonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB69%Star ThomasPORTAL · DUKE · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMakhilyn YoungRB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB61%Keyshaun ElliottPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL7%Isaiah MursalatOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDeuce Hogan · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYSantino Marucci · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTREFILLED
DBJosiah Cox · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEDa'Marcus Crosby II · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONDakerric Hobbs · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTON4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJustin Beadles · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONNaki Fahina · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVMatt Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETJ Pride · SIGNEEPARTIAL
RBMike Washington Jr. · PORTAL ★2 · BUFFALOREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLMateo Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.59 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.657 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
24.03 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB121237074 OF 7 GRADED
RB55555212107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE161633511911 OF 19 GRADED
OL414150822112 OF 21 GRADED
DL232323351414 OF 14 GRADED
LB26265270118 OF 11 GRADED
DB333331362115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%25
RECRUITING CLASS#134 · 0/7 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-26 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 13 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MTSUDEREK MASONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9696
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUTONY SANCHEZFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSEMTSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2118% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=1088% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553262%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=1949% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+15
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.9%
45.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.6%
71.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = MTSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE