SAT 19:00 ET|YANKEE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP93|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
12-2
1
80
35
70%
31
50
15.0
+490
+14.5
HOME
49
14-2
93
87
97
37%
22
—
29.5
-675
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALARMY14—ND49
CLOSED ND -14.5TOTAL 44.5ND COVERED · 63 POINTS · OVER
ARMY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADND -14.5
IMPLIED — ARMY15.0
IMPLIED — ND29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT26 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 26 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+15.2
ARMY won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs11.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.3
NOTRE DAME won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARMYNOTRE DAME2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB76%Jimmy CiarloLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeo LowinLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson PowellLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB69%Quindrelin HammondsDB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabari MooreDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBo Nicolas-PaulDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB54%Tyson RileyRB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakobi BuchananRB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL52%Austin HillDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris FreyDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNathaniel SmithDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE49%Joshua LingenfelterTE · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAy'Jaun MarshallWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah AlstonPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Jackson FilipowiczOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShayne BuckinghamOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB28%Champ HarrisQB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBBryson Banks · SIGNEE ★3Marley Alapati · SIGNEE ★3Jackson Weingart · SIGNEE ★21 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBJaylen Jones · SIGNEE ★3Andrew Wiggins · SIGNEE ★2JT Poynton · SIGNEE ★22 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDylan Armentrout · SIGNEE ★2Randall Nauden · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
DLLiam McKenna · SIGNEE ★2Artemas Bryant · SIGNEE ★2Jayden Antonelli · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TEBrian Ray III · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Jaworski · SIGNEE ★2Abram Edwards · SIGNEE ★21 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLJosh Manecke · SIGNEE ★2Kyle Baltazar · SIGNEE ★2Greg Meidl · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
QBMikal Davis · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARMY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.622 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.870 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
33.511 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB53531310082 OF 8 GRADED
RB66663396258 OF 25 GRADED
WR/TE444411902816 OF 28 GRADED
OL737322753115 OF 31 GRADED
DL262653802821 OF 28 GRADED
LB434310942011 OF 20 GRADED
DB555546702818 OF 28 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%15
RECRUITING CLASS#152 · 0/50 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARMYJEFF MONKEN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARMY OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARMY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE ARMY QUARTERBACKSn=80% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARMY OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE ARMY OFFENSIVE LINEn=3125% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARMY OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE ARMY RUNNING BACKSn=254% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556378%53%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455685%45%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARMY OFFENSESECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE ARMY PASS CATCHERSn=2810% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−73
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARMY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS90.9%
60.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS32.3%
57.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.3%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARMY, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE