SAT 20:00 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
6-7
63
40
75
84%
25
—
24.0
-135
-2.5
HOME
31
9-4
50
13
87
50%
40
—
21.5
+114
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALVT28—DUKE31
CLOSED VT -2.5TOTAL 45.5DUKE COVERED · 59 POINTS · OVER
VT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADVT -2.5
IMPLIED — VT24.0
IMPLIED — DUKE21.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
VTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
VIRGINIA TECH won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.7
DUKE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIA TECHDUKE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL35%Norell PollardDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMario KendricksDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPheldarius PayneDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB34%Alan TisdaleLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden JenningsLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE21%Dae'Quan WrightPORTAL · OLE MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB20%Derrick CanteenPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNasir PeoplesS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB18%Grant WellsQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB4%Bryce DukePORTAL · OLD DOMINION · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL2%Jack HollifieldPORTAL · APP STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAeneas Peebles · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEKhurtiss Perry · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAKelvin Gilliam Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKaleb Spencer · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMISam Brumfield · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEGabe Williams · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEKeylen Adams · SIGNEE ★4Chanz Wiggins · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBQuentin Reddish · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBCollin Schlee · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADavi Belfort · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBTyler Mason · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLMontavious Cunningham · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEAidan Lynch · SIGNEE ★3Tommy Ricard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
74.196 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
86.399 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.885 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6868798263 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858749576 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE646481982415 OF 24 GRADED
OL484864982015 OF 20 GRADED
DL707066681915 OF 19 GRADED
LB636361771513 OF 15 GRADED
DB646464871815 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE63rd63
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#45 · 4/15 BC67
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 7 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VTBRENT PRY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVT OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE VT QUARTERBACKSn=618% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE VT OFFENSIVE LINEn=202% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE VT RUNNING BACKSn=75% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558374%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE VT PASS CATCHERSn=242% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM2% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−16
−20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.0%
52.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.2%
70.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VT, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE