SAT 22:30 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
22
5-7
1
11
29
34%
54
—
20.8
+124
+3.0
HOME
19
3-10
23
51
8
49%
28
—
23.8
-148
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAF22—NEV19
CLOSED NEV -3.0TOTAL 44.5AF COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
AF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADNEV -3.0
IMPLIED — AF20.8
IMPLIED — NEV23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
AFRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.6-7.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.3
AIR FORCE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-10ACTUALvs4.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
NEVADA won 3 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAIR FORCENEVADA2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL98%Adam KarasOT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley NdagoG · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThor PaglialongOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB96%Johnathan YoungbloodLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlec MockLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPJ RamseyLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB83%Zac LarrierQB · 64% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJensen JonesQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB80%Emmanuel MichelFB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Lee Eldridge IIIRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOwen BurkRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE78%Caleb RillosTE · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames BryantTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDane KinamonWR · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB58%Jayden GoodwinS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey TaylorDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen MergersonS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL41%Jayden ThiergoodDE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaden BlumDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLTanner Stokes · SIGNEE ★3Bennett Williams · SIGNEE ★2Brody Smith · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
LBJack Matranga · SIGNEE ★3Willie Powell · SIGNEE ★2Landon Drennan · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
QBBrody Fortunati · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
RBJordan Triplett · SIGNEE ★3Travis Wood · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TEJonah Dawson · SIGNEE ★3Reign Broadway · SIGNEE ★3Noah McNair · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLJalen Davis · SIGNEE ★3Jamison Klein · SIGNEE ★3Brandon Nazworth · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AIR FORCE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.92 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.76 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2929—5453 OF 5 GRADED
RB363624471410 OF 14 GRADED
WR/TE474711872414 OF 24 GRADED
OL393914181914 OF 19 GRADED
DL47473271139 OF 13 GRADED
LB363622702117 OF 21 GRADED
DB515119652017 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#172 · 0/46 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-58 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 9th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATEFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AFTROY CALHOUN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAF OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAIR FORCE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE AF QUARTERBACKSn=546% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAIR FORCE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE AF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1982% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAIR FORCE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE AF RUNNING BACKSn=1453% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS44% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552943%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAIR FORCE OFFENSESECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE AF PASS CATCHERSn=2413% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS89.1%
60.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS36.6%
64.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AF, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE