SAT 14:00 ET|CAESARS SUPERDOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
5-7
0
0
0
0%
0
—
21.3
—
+3.0
HOME
24
8-5
0
0
0
0%
0
—
24.3
—
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALGRAM14—SOU24
CLOSED SOU -3.0TOTAL 45.5SOU COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
GRAM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SOU
GRAM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT2 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADSOU -3.0
IMPLIED — GRAM21.3
IMPLIED — SOU24.3
PACE COLLISION
UNMEASURED × UNMEASURED
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
No 2024 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERGRAMBLINGSOUTHERN2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jacob JonesQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Chance WilliamsPORTAL · CINCINNATI · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Antonio JonesPORTAL · TEMPLE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Markeis SykesPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Norey JohnsonPORTAL · HOUSTON CHRISTIAN · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDeljay Bailey · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSINTACT
RBJordan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · HAWAI'ITony Phillips · SIGNEE ★3Andre Crews · SIGNEEINTACT
WR/TEJacoby Bellazar · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDuece Jones · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOKeith Jones Jr. · SIGNEEINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLBryce Cage · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEJames Eaglin · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAJalen Rudolph · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBJayshaun Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Roderick McCrary · SIGNEEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GRAMBLING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB———02CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB44449004CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE4141——17CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL——50—10CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL——27—11CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————9CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB————17CARRIED FROM 2023 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
RECRUITING CLASS#137 · 0/13 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 2 CYCLES22
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SOU—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GRAM—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGRAM OFFENSESOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGRAMBLING OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTHERN DEFENSE GRAM QUARTERBACKSn=2100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 0 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGRAMBLING OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN DEFENSE GRAM OFFENSIVE LINEn=10RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SOU FRONT-7n=0 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGRAMBLING OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN DEFENSE GRAM RUNNING BACKSn=4100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 0 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGRAMBLING OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTHERN DEFENSE GRAM PASS CATCHERSn=17RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SOU SECONDARYn=0 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GRAM, ORANGE = SOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE