SAT 15:30 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP13|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
7-6
58
50
29
43%
85
—
22.5
-105
+1.5
HOME
14
5-7
71
53
47
30%
15
—
24.0
-115
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALRUTG41—MSU14
CLOSED MSU -1.5TOTAL 46.5RUTG COVERED · 55 POINTS · OVER
RUTG
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSU
RUTG
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADMSU -1.5
IMPLIED — RUTG22.5
IMPLIED — MSU24.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT17 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 17 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.1-4.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.1
RUTGERS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
MICHIGAN STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRUTGERSMICHIGAN STATE2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Gavin WimsattPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 98% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Johnny LanganTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WashingtonWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShawn BowmanTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB36%Deion JenningsLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL28%Isaiah ItonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMayan AhanotuDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRene KongaPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL24%Curtis Dunlap Jr.OL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB16%Max MeltonDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB7%Aaron YoungPORTAL · OLD DOMINION · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAJ Surace · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEDymere Miller · PORTAL ★4 · MONMOUTHKJ Duff · SIGNEE ★4Matt Ogunniyi · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBSam Robinson · SIGNEE ★3MJ Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Sam Pilof · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMalcolm Ray · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAaris Bethea · SIGNEE ★3Tycoolhill Luman · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLRaynor Andrews · SIGNEE ★3Kenny Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBAntonio White Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Kaj Sanders · SIGNEE ★4DK Gilley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBAntwan Raymond · SIGNEE ★3Edd Guerrier · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RUTGERS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
67.991 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.660 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
75.797 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB414145051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747437595 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE464673532515 OF 25 GRADED
OL515158992211 OF 22 GRADED
DL424262742416 OF 24 GRADED
LB333352100158 OF 15 GRADED
DB565672862618 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%48
RECRUITING CLASS#36 · 4/25 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 6 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUJONATHAN SMITHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RUTGGREG SCHIANO5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRUTG OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRUTGERS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE RUTG QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE RUTG OFFENSIVE LINEn=221% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE RUTG RUNNING BACKSn=925% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555949%30%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455656%23%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERUTGERS OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE RUTG PASS CATCHERSn=2547% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM50% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
+37
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.0%
57.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.0%
67.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RUTG, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE