SAT 19:00 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U48.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
6-7
95
47
98
39%
54
—
21.0
+180
+6.0
HOME
37
9-4
94
90
82
20%
86
—
27.0
-220
-6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALOU17—LSU37
CLOSED LSU -6.0TOTAL 48.0LSU COVERED · 54 POINTS · OVER
OU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL48.0
SPREADLSU -6.0
IMPLIED — OU21.0
IMPLIED — LSU27.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
OURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
OKLAHOMA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.6
LSU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMALSU2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB85%Dillon GabrielPORTAL · OREGON · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL83%Andrew RaymOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter RouseDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMcKade MettauerOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL56%Rondell BothroydDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob LaceyDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah CoeDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Tawee WalkerPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus MajorPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE39%Austin StognerTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrake StoopsWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB21%Key LawrencePORTAL · OLE MISS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie PearsonDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB3%Konnor NearLB · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMichael Hawkins Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLBranson Hickman · PORTAL ★3 · SMUEugene Brooks · SIGNEE ★4Eddy Pierre-Louis · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLCaiden Woullard · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)Damonic Williams · PORTAL ★4 · TCUDavid Stone · SIGNEE ★54 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSam Franklin · PORTAL ★3 · UT MARTINTaylor Tatum · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEDeion Burks · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUEBauer Sharp · PORTAL ★4 · SE LOUISIANAZion Kearney · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBReggie Powers III · SIGNEE ★4Jaydan Hardy · SIGNEE ★4Jeremiah Newcombe · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJames Nesta · SIGNEE ★4Michael Boganowski · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.164 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.610 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
70.390 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6464646752 OF 5 GRADED
RB5656686096 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE464673202415 OF 24 GRADED
OL585871542115 OF 21 GRADED
DL797991672119 OF 21 GRADED
LB757588100128 OF 12 GRADED
DB535391722716 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE95th95
BLUE-CHIP RATIO57%92
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 19/30 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSUBRIAN KELLY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OUBRENT VENABLES3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOU OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE OU QUARTERBACKSn=533% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE OU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2146% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE OU RUNNING BACKSn=940% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557461%44%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457186%67%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA OFFENSESECONDARYLSU DEFENSE OU PASS CATCHERSn=2480% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.0%
44.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.8%
71.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OU, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE