SAT 19:30 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U51.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
6-7
75
73
80
3%
34
—
16.8
+650
+17.5
HOME
49
13-1
96
94
84
36%
72
—
34.3
-1100
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALWASH21—ORE49
CLOSED ORE -17.5TOTAL 51.0ORE COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
WASH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORE
WASH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADORE -17.5
IMPLIED — WASH16.8
IMPLIED — ORE34.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT20 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 20 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
WASHRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
WASHINGTON won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.2
OREGON won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONOREGON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Michael Penix Jr.DRAFTED · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL97%Roger RosengartenDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTroy FautanuDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker BrailsfordPORTAL · ALABAMA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB90%Dillon JohnsonRB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill NixonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTybo RogersRB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE89%Rome OdunzeDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Lynn PolkDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack WestoverTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL72%Bralen TriceDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion Tupuola-FetuiDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSekai Asoau-AfoaDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB62%Dominique HamptonDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabbar MuhammadPORTAL · OREGON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMishael PowellPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Edefuan UlofoshioDRAFTED · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRalen GoforthLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDemond Williams Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONAWill Rogers · PORTAL ★4 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDermaricus Davis · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLDrew Azzopardi · PORTAL ★4 · SAN DIEGO STATEPaki Finau · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
RBJordan Washington · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONAJonah Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAREFILLED
WR/TEJeremiah Hunter · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAAudric Harris · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAKevin Green Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJayden Wayne · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMISebastian Valdez · PORTAL ★4 · MONTANA STATEIsaiah Ward · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBEphesians Prysock · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONACameron Broussard · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEPeyton Waters · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBryun Parham · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEKhmori House · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.11 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.58 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB636395042 OF 4 GRADED
RB737390476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE595972442110 OF 21 GRADED
OL424259141610 OF 16 GRADED
DL424277492115 OF 21 GRADED
LB2424598697 OF 9 GRADED
DB626282512420 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE75th75
BLUE-CHIP RATIO22%73
RECRUITING CLASS#47 · 4/16 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND+49 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 27 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHJEDD FISCHFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE WASH QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1686% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE WASH RUNNING BACKSn=796% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557253%72%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455399%57%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE WASH PASS CATCHERSn=2156% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.5%
58.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.6%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.3%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE