SAT 20:00 ET|LANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
5-7
56
35
28
62%
75
—
20.0
+250
+4.5
HOME
37
6-7
63
40
75
84%
25
—
24.5
-300
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUVA17—VT37
CLOSED VT -4.5TOTAL 44.5VT COVERED · 54 POINTS · OVER
UVA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
VT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADVT -4.5
IMPLIED — UVA20.0
IMPLIED — VT24.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
UVARECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.4-7.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.1
VIRGINIA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
VIRGINIA TECH won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVIRGINIAVIRGINIA TECH2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB65%Tayvonn KyleCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCoen KingS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam WestfallCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB53%Perris JonesRB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike HollinsRB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE38%Malik WashingtonDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant MischTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL24%Aaron FaumuiDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul AkereDE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB18%Josh AhernLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL1%Jestus JohnsonOL · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Jared RaymanQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBKendren Smith · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAKempton Shine · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN MICHIGANJam Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ROBERT MORRIS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEChris Tyree · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEAndre Greene Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINATyler Neville · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARD4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTyler Simmons · SIGNEE ★3Chase Morrison · SIGNEE ★3Jewett Hayes · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDorian Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIMyles Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLDrake Metcalf · PORTAL ★3 · UCFBen York · SIGNEE ★3Grant Ellinger · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBGavin Frakes · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEBoone Lourd · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
66.291 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.897 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.668 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB44447910062 OF 6 GRADED
RB6464735665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE525276462817 OF 28 GRADED
OL494964992215 OF 22 GRADED
DL414152982413 OF 24 GRADED
LB47475784137 OF 13 GRADED
DB585855291812 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE56th56
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%52
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 0/16 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 13 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VTBRENT PRY3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UVATONY ELLIOTT3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUVA OFFENSEVT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVIRGINIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE UVA QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS20% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE UVA OFFENSIVE LINEn=221% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS28% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE UVA RUNNING BACKSn=644% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557068%16%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVIRGINIA OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE UVA PASS CATCHERSn=2854% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM13% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+23
−16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UVA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.7%
61.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.3%
56.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UVA, ORANGE = VT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE