SAT 20:00 ET|BRIDGEFORTH STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
10-3
42
27
33
27%
18
—
24.0
+142
+4.0
HOME
33
9-4
13
11
68
4%
77
—
28.0
-170
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALMRSH35—JMU33
CLOSED JMU -4.0TOTAL 52.0MRSH COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
MRSH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
JMU
MRSH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
JMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADJMU -4.0
IMPLIED — MRSH24.0
IMPLIED — JMU28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
MRSHRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.8
MARSHALL won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.1
JAMES MADISON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLJAMES MADISON2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB86%Eli NealLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephen Dix Jr.PORTAL · ARKANSAS · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKerion MartinPORTAL · YOUNGSTOWN STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB75%Cam FancherPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL74%Ethan DriskellOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton TuckerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HollerPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Chris MottilloTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden HarrisonPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb CoombsPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB66%Rasheen AliDRAFTED · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Owen PorterDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah AlstonPORTAL · MIAMI · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam BurtonDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB40%Micah AbrahamDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Yoni HillPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBMonroe Beard III · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATEAshton Heflin · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHChason Clark · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBMitch Griffis · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTBraylon Braxton · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAJacQai Long · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLCedrick Nicely · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSPARTIAL
WR/TEChristian Fitzpatrick · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATECarl Chester · PORTAL ★3 · TULSATychaun Chapman · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJordan Houston · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEMoses Gray · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJacarius Clayton · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEChris Stokes · SIGNEE ★3Michael Lunsford · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBIsaiah Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEGuylijah Theodule · SIGNEE ★3Corey Myrick · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
40.016 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.818 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.527 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545450283 OF 8 GRADED
RB43435156104 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE505037182112 OF 21 GRADED
OL575719431511 OF 15 GRADED
DL686854511915 OF 19 GRADED
LB52526088117 OF 11 GRADED
DB636358872217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%53
RECRUITING CLASS#103 · 0/18 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND-46 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 28 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JMUBOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHCHARLES HUFF4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSEJMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEJAMES MADISON DEFENSE MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=898% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1557% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS51% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7JAMES MADISON DEFENSE MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=1044% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS50% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556540%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSESECONDARYJAMES MADISON DEFENSE MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2182% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JMU SECONDARYn=28 · 1 ROOM66% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−16
−59
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.5%
58.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.3%
58.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = JMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE