FRI 20:00 ET|MICHIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP55|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
9-5
55
86
70
30%
38
—
25.8
-225
-5.0
HOME
35
12-2
1
80
35
70%
31
—
20.8
+185
+5.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2024CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTULN14—ARMY35
CLOSED TULN -5.0TOTAL 46.5ARMY COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
TULN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARMY
TULN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARMY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 15 FIELD n=9
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADTULN -5.0
IMPLIED — TULN25.8
IMPLIED — ARMY20.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 9-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
TULNRECORD UNDERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
TULANE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+15.2
ARMY won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANEARMY2024 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB80%Kam PedescleauxS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarius MonroeDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLance RobinsonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB78%Michael PrattDRAFTED · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE51%Chris Brazzell IIPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris CarterTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawrence Keys IIIWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL50%Sincere HaynesworthOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WireOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrince PinesOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL43%Keith Cooper Jr.PORTAL · HOUSTON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevean DealPORTAL · TCU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius HodgesDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Jared SmallPORTAL · ARIZONA · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB16%Shedro LouisRB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCaleb Ransaw · PORTAL ★3 · TROYJalen Geiger · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYLu Tillery · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBTy Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONKellen Tasby · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEMario Williams · PORTAL ★4 · USCShazz Preston · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAKhai Prean · PORTAL ★3 · LSU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLVincent Murphy · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYGabe Fortson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHDerrick Graham · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAdin Huntington · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEGeordan Guidry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBSam Howard · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYREFILLED
RBJamauri McClure · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
46.740 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.758 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.230 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595999052 OF 5 GRADED
RB7272749075 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE616161642615 OF 26 GRADED
OL676752581813 OF 18 GRADED
DL696964771212 OF 12 GRADED
LB63634949159 OF 15 GRADED
DB676745322419 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%54
RECRUITING CLASS#63 · 1/18 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 22 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARMYJEFF MONKEN9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNJON SUMRALLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSEARMY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARMY DEFENSE TULN QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 76 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1842% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-7n=48 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE TULN RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552680%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSESECONDARYARMY DEFENSE TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2636% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY SECONDARYn=28 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−14
−73
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS69.0%
90.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS51.2%
32.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.9%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = ARMY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2024, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE