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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›ND @ MIA›OVERVIEWPLACEHOLDER DATA — THE API ANSWERED 500
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
ND @ MIA75
OSU @ NEB75
PSU @ ORE74
UTAH @ UCLA71
MICH @ TEX70
SC @ ALA68
ASU @ BAY62
SYR @ CLEM55
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NOTRE DAME
MIAMI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 19:30 ET|ABC|HARD ROCK STADIUM · MIAMI GARDENS FLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U54.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
8FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
12-2
91
74
69
64%
58
74
26.0
+118
+2.5
HOME
#14AP
17FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
10-3
74
72
62
41%
74
61
28.5
-140
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DK FD MGM CZR
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADMIA −2.5
IMPLIED — ND26.0
IMPLIED — MIA28.5
TOTAL RANK9 / 12
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
81FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
9 / 12
BY ENVIRONMENT
2 / 12
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by seven positions on a twelve-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST — NEITHER SIDE SLOWS THE OTHER
ND PACE26.8s
58
MIA PACE24.1s
74
SHARED PACE25.4s
68
PLAY VOLUME148
78
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ND64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
61
TEMPO
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.28
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.11
76
FINISHING DRIVES4.81
68
MIA83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
81
TEMPO
74
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.34
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.31
47
FINISHING DRIVES5.22
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD OVERSTATES
12-2ACTUALvs10.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD4-1
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.9
Twelve wins, a scoring profile describing ten. The market prices the record; the scoring profile is the other description of the same season.
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE−0.6 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD2-3
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.1
Ten wins against a scoring profile describing between ten and eleven. The record and the underlying performance say the same thing.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDAUTAH2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB93%Anthony RichardsonQB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB64%Amari BurneyLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVentrell MillerLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenton Cox Jr.LB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Ethan WhiteOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONO'Cyrus TorrenceOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard GouraigeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Trey Dean IIIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad Torrence IIS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'Vez JohnsonPORTAL · MISSOURI · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%Gervon Dexter Sr.DL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntwaun Powell-RylandPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen LeePORTAL · LSU · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE22%Xzavier HendersonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Nay'Quan WrightPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGraham Mertz · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINREFILLED
LBJaden Robinson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKiyaunta Goodwin · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYMicah Mazzccua · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORDamieon George · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRJ Moten · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANJa'Keem Jackson · SIGNEE ★4Dijon Johnson · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCaleb Banks · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLECamRon Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · MEMPHISKelby Collins · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAidan Mizell · SIGNEE ★4Eugene Wilson III · SIGNEE ★4Andy Jean · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBTreyaun Webb · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.835 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.358 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.029 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575784053 OF 5 GRADED
RB7474789285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE696972662417 OF 24 GRADED
OL525279581915 OF 19 GRADED
DL595991572415 OF 24 GRADED
LB53538462119 OF 11 GRADED
DB494984662112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE90th90
BLUE-CHIP RATIO54%91
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 18/21 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%55
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTAHKYLE WHITTINGHAM8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
PACE
6060
PASS RATE
1717
EXPLOSIVENESS
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HAVOC
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FLABILLY NAPIER2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
PACE
1818
PASS RATE
4444
EXPLOSIVENESS
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4141
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 136
TAL
88
PERF
79
RET
92
NATIONAL
52OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE
ND QUARTERBACKSn=2 · 468 OBS0% VACATED
PROJECTED
EPA/DB
EXPL
FPT/G
★
C.J. CARRQBRETUNCONTESTED
+0.2414.1%19.8★5
K. MINCHEYQBRET
−0.029.4%2.1★4
ATTEMPT SHARE IS SETTLED — EFFICIENCY, EXPLOSIVENESS AND FANTASY SCORING REPLACE SHARE AND USAGE AT THIS POSITION · HALF-PPR
MIA FULL DEFENSE3 ROOMS · 4,120 OBS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.276654%0.48
LINEBACKERSLB
0.185861%0.39
SECONDARYDB
0.557164%0.44
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — ROOMS BLENDED BY WEIGHT, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 136
TAL
86
PERF
80
RET
74
DL
44OF 136
DL RET
58
LB
51OF 136
LB RET
61
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=7 · 3,110 OBS26% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
SNAP
TAL
EXP
★
A. SULLIVANOTRET
98%914 YR★4
B. NELSONOGRET
94%883 YR★4
R. HUFANGACLAST YR ≈
88%612 YR★3
G. MERRIWEATHEROGPORTAL ★3 · PURDUE
76%583 YR★3
T. LOVEOTRET
71%842 YR★4
SHOW ALL 7
THREE OF FIVE STARTING SPOTS RETURN · LINEMEN SCORE NO FANTASY POINTS AND CARRY NO USAGE — PEDIGREE AND EXPERIENCE CARRY THE ROOM INSTEAD
MIA FRONT-7 · PASS RUSHn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
PRSS
RSTP
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%12.1%68%★4
F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%14.4%61%★3
W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%6.2%64%★4
A. PACEDLRET
12%8.8%58%★3
T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%3.1%51%★4
D. CURRYLBRET
8%5.1%60%★3
M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%9.4%49%★4
SHOW ALL 9
DEFENSIVE LINE AND LINEBACKERS BLENDED 0.60 / 0.40 · PRESSURE AND RUN-STOP ARE THE LINE'S SIDE OF THE MATCHUP
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 136
TAL
71
PERF
64
RET
58
DL
44OF 136
DL RET
58
LB
51OF 136
LB RET
61
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
ND RUNNING BACKSn=4 · 741 OBS42% VACATED
PROJECTED
CAR
USE
FPT/G
★
J. PRICERBRET
38%6111.4★4
A. LOVERBRET
31%489.2★4
K. GREATHOUSERBTRUE FR
24%12—★4
N. MINORRBTRUE FR
7%6—★3
NO BACK CLEARS THE 55% CONCENTRATION MARK — CARRIES SPLIT THREE WAYS · FPT/G IS LAST SEASON'S HALF-PPR SCORING IN A DIFFERENT ROLE
MIA FRONT-7 · RUN FRONTn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
RSTP
TFL
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%68%8.4%★4
F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%61%9.1%★3
W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%64%6.1%★4
A. PACEDLRET
12%58%5.4%★3
T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%51%3.2%★4
D. CURRYLBRET
8%60%4.8%★3
M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%49%5.9%★4
SHOW ALL 9
SAME FRONT-7, WEIGHTED 0.55 / 0.45 FOR THE BACKFIELD · RUN-STOP AND TACKLE-FOR-LOSS REPLACE THE PASS-RUSH COLUMN
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 136
TAL
74
PERF
58
RET
61
DB
39OF 136
DB RET
64
SECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE
ND PASS-CATCHERSn=7 · 1,884 OBS39% VACATED
PROJECTED
TGT
USE
FPT/G
★
J. FAISONWRRET
24%5810.8★4
M. EVANSTERET
21%528.4★3
C. GREATHOUSEWRLAST YR ≈
19%346.1★4
W. LOVEWRPORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA
16%417.9★3
K. FLOREWRRET
11%244.2★3
SHOW ALL 7
FOUR PLAYERS BETWEEN 16% AND 24% TARGET SHARE — NOBODY REACHES THE 45% MARK · NO RETURNING PASS-CATCHER CLEARED 11 FPT/G
MIA SECONDARYn=7 · 2,240 OBS36% VACATED
SECONDARY BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
COV
BALL
★
D. IVEYCBRET
25%7164★3
O. STROUDCBPORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON
22%6674★4
M. REDDINGSRET
20%5852★3
K. ALLENCBRET
14%6148★3
J. OKONKWOSTRUE FR
12%——★4
SHOW ALL 7
THE MOST INTACT UNIT ON THIS DEFENSE — TWO STARTING CORNERS AND A SAFETY RETURN
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
71.2
66.8
— OFFENSE
74.1
72.3
— DEFENSE
68.9
61.4
SP+ OVERALL
24.1
19.8
FPI
21.4
17.2
ELO
1892
1811
TALENT
91
74
PRODUCTION
82
76
TALENT − PRODUCTION
+9
−2
BLUE-CHIP RATIO
0.71
0.44
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION-GROUP GRADES ABOVE
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
OFF EFFICIENCY
47.2%
45.8%
DEF EFFICIENCY
38.9%
40.3%
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
1.28
1.34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
1.11
1.31
FINISHING DRIVES
4.81
5.22
FIELD POSITION
+2.1
−0.4
TURNOVER MARGIN
+0.9
+0.1
TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THE FIVE YEAR OVER YEAR AND IS WEIGHTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE STATED-FACT ORDER
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
PASS RATE
52.1%
58.9%
PROE
+2.1
+5.8
PACE
26.8s
24.1s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
38%
51%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.1%
44.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
81.4%
88.2%
PLAYS / GAME
71.8
76.4
GARBAGE-TIME SHARE
9.1%
12.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY-BY-PLAY — NO CHARTED-ALIGNMENT INPUTS · PROE IS PACE-ADJUSTED · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE