SAT 12:00 ET|WILLIAMS STADIUM (VA)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
7-6
18
42
52
30%
6
15
20.0
+275
+9.5
HOME
34
13-1
9
92
20
45%
77
2
29.5
-305
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBGSU24—LIB34
CLOSED LIB -9.5TOTAL 49.5LIB COVERED · 58 POINTS · OVER
BGSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
LIB
BGSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LIB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADLIB -9.5
IMPLIED — BGSU20.0
IMPLIED — LIB29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
68FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT33 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 33 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BGSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
BOWLING GREEN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LIBRECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.1
LIBERTY won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOWLING GREENLIBERTY2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB87%Matt McDonaldQB · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE49%Christian SimsTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrone BrodenPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ LewisWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL48%Karl BrooksDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWalter HaireDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaine SpiresPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB48%DJ TaylorLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce BrandLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJB BrownPORTAL · KANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL35%Jalen GrantPORTAL · PURDUE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakari RobinsonC · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB34%Chris BaconS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan AndersonPORTAL · UCLA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB1%Jaylen JenningsRB · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBConnor Bazelak · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANALucian Anderson III · SIGNEEREFILLED
WR/TEShawn Thigpen · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Harris · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
DLHunter Deyo · PORTAL ★4 · IOWA STATEAlijah Williams · SIGNEE ★3Dayln White · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDavid Afogho · SIGNEEPARTIAL
OLBrody Bolyn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTracy Revels · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEmable Wakilongo · SIGNEE ★3Chris Edmonds · SIGNEEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOWLING GREEN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.446 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.724 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
58.262 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3030842142 OF 4 GRADED
RB6969587387 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE434352762313 OF 23 GRADED
OL323251831913 OF 19 GRADED
DL484850801514 OF 15 GRADED
LB383831941510 OF 15 GRADED
DB575750961711 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%33
RECRUITING CLASS#119 · 0/16 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND-16 · 3 CYCLES18
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 2 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%11
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LIBJAMEY CHADWELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6969
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BGSUSCOT LOEFFLER5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBGSU OFFENSELIB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELIBERTY DEFENSE BGSU QUARTERBACKSn=479% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE BGSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1917% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOWLING GREEN OFFENSEFRONT-7LIBERTY DEFENSE BGSU RUNNING BACKSn=827% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS39% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554354%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOWLING GREEN OFFENSESECONDARYLIBERTY DEFENSE BGSU PASS CATCHERSn=2324% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LIB SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−14
−70
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BGSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LIB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.7%
73.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.6%
48.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BGSU, ORANGE = LIB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE