SAT 16:00 ET|DATCU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP38|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
58
6-7
68
73
67
44%
84
90
33.3
—
-9.0
HOME
21
5-7
30
68
0
42%
98
8
24.3
—
+9.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALCAL58—UNT21
CLOSED CAL -9.0TOTAL 57.5CAL COVERED · 79 POINTS · OVER
CAL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADCAL -9.0
IMPLIED — CAL33.3
IMPLIED — UNT24.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
74FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CALRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.1
CALIFORNIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNTRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.6
NORTH TEXAS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCALIFORNIANORTH TEXAS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jack PlummerPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE58%J. Michael SturdivantPORTAL · UCLA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeleki LatuPORTAL · NEVADA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJermaine Terry IIPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Oluwafemi OladejoPORTAL · UCLA · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraxten CroteauLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB32%DeCarlos BrooksPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDamien MooreRB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL23%Ben ColemanOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB19%Daniel ScottS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL9%Orin PatuPORTAL · ARIZONA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSam Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · TCUBen Finley · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEREFILLED
WR/TEMarquez Dortch · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATETaj Davis · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJ.T. Byrne · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDavid Reese · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDASergio Allen · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONCade Uluave · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBJustin Williams-Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEByron Cardwell · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONIsaiah Ifanse · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMatthew Wykoff · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MREFILLED
DBNohl Williams · PORTAL ★4 · UNLVPatrick McMorris · PORTAL ★4 · SAN DIEGO STATEMarcus Scott II · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLFrederick Williams · SIGNEE ★3Tiumalu Afalava · SIGNEE ★3Zurich Ashford · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CALIFORNIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
71.595 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.563 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
78.599 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB656576052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464877495 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE636373342313 OF 23 GRADED
OL606062602014 OF 20 GRADED
DL484858601613 OF 16 GRADED
LB464687481710 OF 17 GRADED
DB575771441912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE68th68
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%69
RECRUITING CLASS#79 · 1/14 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND-51 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 20 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX46%91
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CALJUSTIN WILCOX7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCAL OFFENSEUNT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH TEXAS DEFENSE CAL QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE CAL OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCALIFORNIA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH TEXAS DEFENSE CAL RUNNING BACKSn=926% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS27% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553277%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECALIFORNIA OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH TEXAS DEFENSE CAL PASS CATCHERSn=2366% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNT SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+17
−9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CAL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.9%
49.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.9%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CAL, ORANGE = UNT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE