SAT 19:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U61.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
9-4
47
40
64
85%
97
16
30.5
—
0.0
HOME
17
4-8
65
13
30
23%
31
58
30.5
—
0.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALUTSA14—HOU17
CLOSED PICK'EMTOTAL 61.0HOU COVERED · 31 POINTS · UNDER
UTSA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
HOU
UTSA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL61.0
SPREADUTSA 0.0
IMPLIED — UTSA30.5
IMPLIED — HOU30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT28 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 28 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
UTSARECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.0
UTSA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTSAHOUSTON2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB62%Brenden BradyRB · 45% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrelon SmithRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB42%Trevor HarmansonLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDadrian TaylorLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Corey Mayfield Jr.CB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClifford ChattmanS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Ahofitu MakaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin DavisOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE30%Zakhari FranklinPORTAL · OLE MISS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin SharpTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL12%Lamonte McDougleDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Cam PetersQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBRocko Griffin · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTBrandon High Jr. · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDaron Allman · PORTAL ★2 · ANGELO STATECorey Lucius · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBSyrus Dumas · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEBryce Grays · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEElliott Davison · PORTAL ★2 · INCARNATE WORD2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJackson Anderson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOQueni Ropati · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEJamel Hardy Jr. · SIGNEE ★3David Amador II · SIGNEE ★3Patrick Overmyer · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLJameian Buxton · SIGNEE ★3Vic Shaw · SIGNEE ★3James Walley Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBOwen McCown · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJackson Gilkey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.877 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.552 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
65.282 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6969428653 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454304275 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE616135792011 OF 20 GRADED
OL464626862113 OF 21 GRADED
DL666654961614 OF 16 GRADED
LB737352922014 OF 20 GRADED
DB494951701917 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%10
RECRUITING CLASS#59 · 0/14 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 8 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX41%74
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUDANA HOLGORSEN5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTSA OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTSA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE UTSA QUARTERBACKSn=514% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE UTSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2114% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE UTSA RUNNING BACKSn=758% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555874%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454597%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTSA OFFENSESECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE UTSA PASS CATCHERSn=2021% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM78% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−19
+35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
49.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.6%
72.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTSA, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE