SAT 19:30 ET|BANK OF AMERICA STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U62.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
5-7
85
80
55
64%
44
97
32.5
—
-2.5
HOME
31
8-5
88
96
50
75%
95
58
30.0
—
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALSC17—UNC31
CLOSED SC -2.5TOTAL 62.5UNC COVERED · 48 POINTS · UNDER
SC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL62.5
SPREADSC -2.5
IMPLIED — SC32.5
IMPLIED — UNC30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
73FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
SCRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
SOUTH CAROLINA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
NORTH CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH CAROLINANORTH CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE63%Austin StognerPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNate AdkinsTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen BrooksWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB62%Sherrod GreeneLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrad JohnsonLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Jordan BurchPORTAL · OREGON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGilber EdmondPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZacch PickensDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB55%MarShawn LloydPORTAL · USC · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian Beal-SmithRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL55%Jovaughn GwynOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric DouglasOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan WonnumOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB34%Cam SmithDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius RushDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevonni ReedDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETrey Knox · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASJoshua Simon · PORTAL ★4 · WESTERN KENTUCKYEddie Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBGrayson Howard · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLJaron Willis · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJatius Geer · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEDesmond Umeozulu · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMario Anderson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NEWBERRYDJay Braswell · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLSidney Fugar · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN ILLINOISMarkee Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Tree Babalade · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBJalon Kilgore · SIGNEE ★4Zahbari Sandy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.914 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.217 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.926 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6565999943 OF 4 GRADED
RB4141869196 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE686877462717 OF 27 GRADED
OL414156422014 OF 20 GRADED
DL484872891312 OF 13 GRADED
LB424250791412 OF 14 GRADED
DB505071742019 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%82
RECRUITING CLASS#16 · 11/25 BC89
CLASS RANK TREND+60 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 10 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%36
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCMACK BROWN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SCSHANE BEAMER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSC OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE SC QUARTERBACKSn=41% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE SC OFFENSIVE LINEn=2058% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE SC RUNNING BACKSn=99% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554682%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455581%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE SC PASS CATCHERSn=2754% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+22
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.8%
54.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.7%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SC, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE