SUN 12:00 ET|SHI STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U40.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
8-5
63
38
52
66%
34
65
16.8
—
+7.0
HOME
24
7-6
56
58
77
44%
20
84
23.8
—
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALNU7—RUTG24
CLOSED RUTG -7.0TOTAL 40.5RUTG COVERED · 31 POINTS · UNDER
NU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
RUTG
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=45
MARKET
TOTAL40.5
SPREADRUTG -7.0
IMPLIED — NU16.8
IMPLIED — RUTG23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
37FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 45-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
NURECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.1
NORTHWESTERN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
RUTGERS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNORTHWESTERNRUTGERS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL75%Charlie SchmidtOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPeter SkoronskiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan WiederkehrOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB74%Evan HullRB · 66% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew ClairRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL56%Adetomiwa AdebaworeDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin O'RourkeDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaishan HolmesDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Jeremiah LewisPORTAL · DUKE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron MitchellDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. Hampton Jr.PORTAL · TULANE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE35%Malik WashingtonPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonny Navarro IIIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB2%Declan CarrLB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Carl RichardsonQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJordan Knox · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Senda · SIGNEE ★3Anthony Birsa · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLMichael Kilbane · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Gant · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Roberts · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDamon Walters · SIGNEE ★3Josh Fussell · SIGNEE ★3J.J. Lewis · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEA.J. Henning · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANCam Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATECamp Magee · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNigel Glover · SIGNEE ★4Justin Cryer · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBBen Bryant · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAidan Gray · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NORTHWESTERN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.252 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.934 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
58.763 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545723364 OF 6 GRADED
RB3636709685 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE343464662318 OF 23 GRADED
OL191977971513 OF 15 GRADED
DL404057761716 OF 17 GRADED
LB454565100106 OF 10 GRADED
DB545475981913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE63rd63
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%53
RECRUITING CLASS#47 · 1/19 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 3 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX28%17
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
RUTGGREG SCHIANO4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NUDAVID BRAUNFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNU OFFENSERUTG OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSERUTGERS DEFENSE NU QUARTERBACKSn=667% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFRONT-7RUTGERS DEFENSE NU OFFENSIVE LINEn=153% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNORTHWESTERN OFFENSEFRONT-7RUTGERS DEFENSE NU RUNNING BACKSn=84% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553287%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENORTHWESTERN OFFENSESECONDARYRUTGERS DEFENSE NU PASS CATCHERSn=2334% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RUTG SECONDARYn=28 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
RUTG
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.6%
68.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.3%
55.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NU, ORANGE = RUTG) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE