SAT 17:15 ET|KENAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP49|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
9-5
39
75
10
47%
77
25
19.3
+525
+19.5
HOME
40
8-5
88
96
50
75%
95
57
38.8
-800
-19.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALAPP34—UNC40
CLOSED UNC -19.5TOTAL 58.0APP COVERED · 74 POINTS · OVER
APP
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT5 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADUNC -19.5
IMPLIED — APP19.3
IMPLIED — UNC38.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
81FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
APPRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs8.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.4
APP STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
NORTH CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAPP STATENORTH CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB98%Chase BriceQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL68%Jordon EarleDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHansky PaillantDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen McLeodPORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB64%Logan DoublinLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeSean BrownPORTAL · MARSHALL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick HamptonLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL52%Cooper HodgesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnderson HardyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTroy EverettPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB45%Camerun PeoplesRB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaetrich HarringtonRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB43%Steven Jones Jr.DB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDexter Lawson Jr.DB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE34%Henry PearsonTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian WellsPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMason McHugh · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMichael Fletcher · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEThomas Davis · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIShawn Collins · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJayden Bethea · SIGNEE ★3Ryan McKinnis · SIGNEE ★3Cahari Haynes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLGriffin Scroggs · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAThornton Gentry · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATELogan Ridolph · PORTAL ★2 · MISSOURI STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMaquel Haywood · PORTAL ★2 · NAVYJaylon Calhoun · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBEJ Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLJarrett Paul · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASD.J. Porter · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Ford · PORTAL ★2 · MISSISSIPPI STATEChris Lawson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Max Drag · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · APP STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB747444322 OF 2 GRADED
RB4242538855 OF 5 GRADED
WR/TE606042921414 OF 14 GRADED
OL565635721010 OF 10 GRADED
DL454558491212 OF 12 GRADED
LB414133991111 OF 11 GRADED
DB474731641212 OF 12 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
RECRUITING CLASS#80 · 0/15 BC41
CLASS RANK TREND-11 · 3 CYCLES28
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 13 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCMACK BROWN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
APPSHAWN CLARK4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAPP OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAPP STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE APP QUARTERBACKSn=297% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAPP STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE APP OFFENSIVE LINEn=1028% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAPP STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE APP RUNNING BACKSn=512% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554682%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455581%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAPP STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE APP PASS CATCHERSn=148% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−24
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
APP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.1%
54.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.0%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = APP, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE