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HOME›SLATE›2023›WEEK 2›LIU @ BRY›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
ORE @ TTU80
IOWA @ ISU79
ILL @ KU75
ND @ NCSU72
MISS @ TULN70
NMSU @ LIB70
MRSH @ ECU69
TEM @ RUTG67
TA&M @ MIA66
UNLV @ MICH66
ARIZ @ MSST66
BALL @ UGA65
APP @ UNC64
JMU @ UVA63
TEX @ ALA63
CLT @ MD63
USM @ FSU63
TLSA @ WASH62
MTSU @ MIZ62
UCLA @ SDSU62
UTAH @ BAY61
PUR @ VT60
UAB @ GASO60
CIN @ PITT60
AUB @ CAL60
TROY @ KSU59
OHIO @ FAU59
UCF @ BOIS59
UTEP @ NU58
HOU @ RICE58
NEB @ COLO56
WIS @ WSU56
KENT @ ARK54
WMU @ SYR53
AF @ SHSU53
STAN @ USC53
VAN @ WAKE51
TXST @ UTSA51
SMU @ OU51
JXST @ CCU48
OKST @ ASU48
M-OH @ MASS46
MEM @ ARST44
CONN @ GAST43
UNT @ FIU42
UL @ ODU38
EMU @ MINN37
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
BRYANT
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2023
SAT 18:00 ET|BULLDOG STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
—FPI
LIUNECLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
10
4-7
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
—FPI
BRYCAABRYANT
21
6-5
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS
FINALLIU10—BRY21
LIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BRY
10
POINTS
21
402
TOTAL YARDS
403
178 (14-29)
PASSING
274 (18-34)
224 (33)
RUSHING
129 (36)
16
FIRST DOWNS
21
5-13
THIRD DOWN
4-14
1-2
FOURTH DOWN
1-2
26:29
TIME OF POSS.
33:31
2-20
PENALTIES
4-30
4
TURNOVERS
0
—
SACKS
—
—
QB HURRIES
—
LIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BRY
0.116
SEASON 0.155
EPA / PLAY
0.216
SEASON 0.252
40.5%
SEASON 38.4%
SUCCESS RATE
45.0%
SEASON 45.5%
19.1%
SEASON 18.3%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
18.3%
SEASON 15.4%
6.31
SEASON 6.18
YARDS / PLAY
6.08
SEASON 6.06
0.216
SEASON 0.244
EPA ALLOWED
0.116
SEASON 0.194
45.0%
SEASON 43.9%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
40.5%
SEASON 44.4%
18.3%
SEASON 15.4%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
19.1%
SEASON 12.7%
8.3%
SEASON 17.1%
STUFF RATE
20.0%
SEASON 12.8%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT0 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
No 2023 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITYBRYANT2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB————1CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB5454——2CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE———1003CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL535357—4CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL———1003CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB————1CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB———01CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BRY—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LIU—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLIU OFFENSEBRY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSEBRYANT DEFENSE
LIU QUARTERBACKSn=1RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
QUARTERBACKS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MAURICE SMITHQBTRUE FR
654TH YR8857★3+40
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BRY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 6 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
——0%
SECONDARYDB
——0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
57
PERF
53
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7BRYANT DEFENSE
LIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=4RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRAYSON LEWISOLTRUE FR
304TH YR——★2—
JAKE TIMMOLRET
—4TH YR——UNR—
KRISTOS FERNANDEZOLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
MOSHOOD GIWAOLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BRY FRONT-7n=2 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CHRISTOPHER EATON JR.DLTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
DONTAE LUNANLBTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
54
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7BRYANT DEFENSE
LIU RUNNING BACKSn=2RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
SEAN KELLYRBTRUE FR
—4TH YR190★2—
PAT JACKSONRBTRUE FR
—3RD YR——UNR+40 2022
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BRY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 2 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45——0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
100
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYBRYANT DEFENSE
LIU PASS CATCHERSn=30% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVON WELLSWRRET
—4TH YR——UNR—
AVIYON SMITH-MACKWRTRUE FR
—4TH YR——★3—
DANIEL HERNANDEZWRTRUE FR
—2ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BRY SECONDARYn=4 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LAKE ELLISDBRET
—4TH YR——★3—
TYLER HASKINSDBTRUE FR
303RD YR——UNR—
EDDIE JACKSON IIIDBTRUE FR
—3RD YR——UNR—
ZACH KELLYDBTRUE FR
—3RD YR——UNR—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LIU, ORANGE = BRY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE