SAT 19:00 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
18
6-7
62
65
47
68%
69
70
30.5
-162
-3.0
HOME
16
8-6
48
67
61
92%
52
31
27.5
+130
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUCF18—BOIS16
CLOSED UCF -3.0TOTAL 58.0BOIS COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
UCF
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BOIS
UCF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BOIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADUCF -3.0
IMPLIED — UCF30.5
IMPLIED — BOIS27.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UCF won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs8.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
BOISE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCFBOISE STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL57%Samuel JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt LeePORTAL · MIAMI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan SwobodaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB51%Davonte BrownPORTAL · MIAMI · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin HodgesPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDivaad WilsonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB51%Isaiah BowserRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB46%Jeremiah Jean-BaptistePORTAL · OLE MISS · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB21%Mikey KeenePORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE20%Ryan O'KeefePORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL20%Anthony MontalvoDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLMarcellus Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEAmari Kight · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMABula Schmidt · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDecorian Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEEJireh Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAFred Davis II · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
LBRian Davis · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAAndrew Harris · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBTimmy McClain · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDADylan Rizk · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEChauncey Magwood · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYTrent Whittemore · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDARandy Pittman Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLDerrick LeBlanc · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAJohn Walker · SIGNEE ★4Isaiah Nixon · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCF
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.958 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.256 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.358 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6565736853 OF 5 GRADED
RB6060479676 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE727281852516 OF 25 GRADED
OL595959432013 OF 20 GRADED
DL585862851913 OF 19 GRADED
LB4949891158 OF 15 GRADED
DB575765662014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE62nd62
BLUE-CHIP RATIO19%69
RECRUITING CLASS#50 · 3/15 BC63
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 18 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%47
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISANDY AVALOS3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCFGUS MALZAHN3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCF OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCF OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE UCF QUARTERBACKSn=532% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCF OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE UCF OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS10% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCF OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE UCF RUNNING BACKSn=74% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS10% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556087%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCF OFFENSESECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE UCF PASS CATCHERSn=2515% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
−21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.3%
65.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.1%
60.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.7%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCF, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE