SAT 22:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
6-7
88
42
77
79%
24
93
30.0
-192
-4.5
HOME
10
6-7
68
73
67
44%
84
86
25.5
+170
+4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAUB14—CAL10
CLOSED AUB -4.5TOTAL 55.5CAL COVERED · 24 POINTS · UNDER
AUB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADAUB -4.5
IMPLIED — AUB30.0
IMPLIED — CAL25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
AUBURN won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.1
CALIFORNIA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAUBURNCALIFORNIA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL76%Kilian ZiererOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon CouncilOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin TroxellOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Owen PappoeLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerick HallLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEku LeotaLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL64%Colby WoodenDE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcus BraggDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquis BurksDT · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB60%Tank BigsbyRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE38%John Samuel ShenkerTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShedrick JacksonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB18%TJ FinleyPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB9%Cayden BridgesS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLAvery Jones · PORTAL ★4 · EAST CAROLINADillon Wade · PORTAL ★4 · TULSAGunner Britton · PORTAL ★4 · WESTERN KENTUCKY3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDeMario Tolan · PORTAL ★4 · LSUPARTIAL
DLJustin Rogers · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYMosiah Nasili-Kite · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDKeldric Faulk · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBBrian Battie · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH FLORIDAJeremiah Cobb · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TERivaldo Fairweather · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALCaleb Burton · PORTAL ★4 · OHIO STATEJyaire Shorter · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXAS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
DBKayin Lee · SIGNEE ★4Sylvester Smith · SIGNEE ★4Terrance Love · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AUBURN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.750 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.747 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.852 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5555711374 OF 7 GRADED
RB5151667397 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE484873652518 OF 25 GRADED
OL50508771813 OF 18 GRADED
DL606075381813 OF 18 GRADED
LB73738346128 OF 12 GRADED
DB626281842319 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE88th88
BLUE-CHIP RATIO41%88
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 10/19 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND+12 · 3 CYCLES74
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+8 · 20 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX31%26
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALJUSTIN WILCOX7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AUBHUGH FREEZEFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAUB OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAUBURN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE AUB QUARTERBACKSn=787% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE AUB OFFENSIVE LINEn=1893% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE AUB RUNNING BACKSn=927% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554860%13%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454648%12%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAUBURN OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE AUB PASS CATCHERSn=2535% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
+17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.3%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.9%
66.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.1%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AUB, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE