SAT 22:30 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
10-4
60
55
33
30%
88
82
28.0
-170
-2.5
HOME
15
3-9
69
24
51
61%
59
95
25.5
+145
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALOKST27—ASU15
CLOSED OKST -2.5TOTAL 53.5OKST COVERED · 42 POINTS · UNDER
OKST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ASU
OKST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ASU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADOKST -2.5
IMPLIED — OKST28.0
IMPLIED — ASU25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
OKSTRECORD OVERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs6.6-6.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
OKLAHOMA STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.1
ARIZONA STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMA STATEARIZONA STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB70%Spencer SandersPORTAL · OLE MISS · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL70%Brock MartinDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione AsiDT · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler LacyDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB66%Jason Taylor IIS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJabbar MuhammadPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean Michael FlanaganS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Bryson GreenPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJP RichardsonPORTAL · TCU · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraydon JohnsonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Dominic RichardsonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeondre JacksonRB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB33%Mason CobbPORTAL · USC · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLamont BishopLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL30%Caleb EtiennePORTAL · BYU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter WoodardOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBZane Flores · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLAnthony Goodlow · PORTAL ★4 · TULSAJustin Kirkland · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECHJaedon Foreman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBKenneth Harris · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEDylan Smith · SIGNEE ★3Tywon Wray Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDe'Zhaun Stribling · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTON STATEArland Bruce IV · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAJosiah Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBElijah Collins · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEREFILLED
LBJustin Wright · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAKam Franklin · SIGNEE ★3Poasa Utu · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLDalton Cooper · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS STATENoah McKinney · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVJack Endean · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.032 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
60.067 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.919 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7979181353 OF 5 GRADED
RB6161819296 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE646466562012 OF 20 GRADED
OL747468652212 OF 22 GRADED
DL484864621914 OF 19 GRADED
LB666673971711 OF 17 GRADED
DB464649682516 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE60th60
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%47
RECRUITING CLASS#54 · 0/19 BC60
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 13 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX38%58
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAMFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OKSTMIKE GUNDY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOKST OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE OKST QUARTERBACKSn=587% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE OKST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2235% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS74% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE OKST RUNNING BACKSn=98% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS73% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555612%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE OKST PASS CATCHERSn=2044% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+47
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.4%
50.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.3%
73.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OKST, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE