SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP32|O/U49.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
9-4
51
81
86
49%
99
71
26.3
-230
-3.5
HOME
30
11-2
83
86
73
65%
57
89
22.8
+190
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALKSU27—MIZ30
CLOSED KSU -3.5TOTAL 49.0MIZ COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
KSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL49.0
SPREADKSU -3.5
IMPLIED — KSU26.3
IMPLIED — MIZ22.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
KSURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.7
KANSAS STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MIZRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.8
MISSOURI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATEMISSOURI2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB79%Deuce VaughnRB · 79% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB74%Josh HayesS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius BrentsCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEkow Boye-DoeCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB49%Adrian MartinezQB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE38%Kade WarnerWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalik KnowlesWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL36%Felix Anudike-UzomahDE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen PickleDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB17%Nick AllenLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL16%Eli HugginsG · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBTreshaun Ward · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEJoe Jackson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarques Sigle · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATEDonovan McIntosh · SIGNEE ★3Kanijal Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBAvery Johnson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
WR/TEKeagan Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · IOWATre Spivey III · SIGNEE ★3Andre Davis · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJevon Banks · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEJordan Allen · SIGNEE ★4Chiddi Obiazor · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBAustin Romaine · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDevin Vass · SIGNEE ★3Jackson Fullmer · SIGNEE ★3Camden Beebe · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.456 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
74.691 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
44.927 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6363968453 OF 5 GRADED
RB7373856785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626263712615 OF 26 GRADED
OL636352991813 OF 18 GRADED
DL565656871715 OF 17 GRADED
LB646449841510 OF 15 GRADED
DB595970482722 OF 27 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE51st51
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%44
RECRUITING CLASS#33 · 3/23 BC76
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 6 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX40%69
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MIZELI DRINKWITZ4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCHRIS KLIEMAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3939
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSEMIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMISSOURI DEFENSE KSU QUARTERBACKSn=516% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=181% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MISSOURI DEFENSE KSU RUNNING BACKSn=833% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558183%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457550%17%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMISSOURI DEFENSE KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2629% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MIZ SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−40
−10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.2%
62.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.9%
69.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = MIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE