SAT 15:30 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP47|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
12-2
100
89
89
40%
26
99
47.5
-20000
-34.5
HOME
3
7-6
53
29
19
46%
100
4
13.0
+2500
+34.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALALA17—USF3
CLOSED ALA -34.5TOTAL 60.5USF COVERED · 20 POINTS · UNDER
ALA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADALA -34.5
IMPLIED — ALA47.5
IMPLIED — USF13.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ALARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.7
ALABAMA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.1
SOUTH FLORIDA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERALABAMASOUTH FLORIDA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB85%Bryce YoungQB · 85% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL64%Byron YoungDL · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ DaleDL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamil BurroughsDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB62%Jordan BattleDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMarcco HellamsDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian BranchDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB54%Henry To'oTo'oLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill Anderson Jr.LB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen MoodyLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB51%Jahmyr GibbsRB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL51%Tyler SteenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmil Ekiyor Jr.OL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavion CohenPORTAL · MIAMI · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE42%Cameron LatuTE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTraeshon HoldenPORTAL · OREGON · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoJo EarlePORTAL · TCU · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEli Holstein · SIGNEE ★4Dylan Lonergan · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DLKeon Keeley · SIGNEE ★5James Smith · SIGNEE ★5Yhonzae Pierre · SIGNEE ★54 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBCaleb Downs · SIGNEE ★5Dezz Ricks · SIGNEE ★5Jahlil Hurley · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBTrezmen Marshall · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAPARTIAL
RBJustice Haynes · SIGNEE ★5Richard Young · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKadyn Proctor · SIGNEE ★5Wilkin Formby · SIGNEE ★4Olaus Alinen · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECJ Dippre · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDJalen Hale · SIGNEE ★5Ty Lockwood · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.919 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.641 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.318 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB67679710063 OF 6 GRADED
RB7575969385 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE616191683017 OF 30 GRADED
OL686894801913 OF 19 GRADED
DL707093951510 OF 15 GRADED
LB636397872411 OF 24 GRADED
DB747496562513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE100th100
BLUE-CHIP RATIO87%100
RECRUITING CLASS#1 · 25/27 BC100
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-7 · 5 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%33
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ALANICK SABAN8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESALA OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE ALA QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE ALA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1920% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE ALA RUNNING BACKSn=87% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554365%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE ALA PASS CATCHERSn=3032% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
+16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ALA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.8%
56.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
56.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ALA, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE