SAT 15:30 ET|KENAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
6-7
59
30
42
41%
22
64
22.5
+235
+7.0
HOME
31
8-5
88
96
50
75%
95
56
29.5
-285
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMINN13—UNC31
CLOSED UNC -7.0TOTAL 52.0UNC COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
MINN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNC
MINN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADUNC -7.0
IMPLIED — MINN22.5
IMPLIED — UNC29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT20 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 20 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MINNRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
MINNESOTA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNCRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
NORTH CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMINNESOTANORTH CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB80%Mohamed IbrahimRB · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey PottsPORTAL · PENN STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB68%Mariano Sori-MarinLB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraelen OliverPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonald WillisPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB61%Jordan HowdenDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerell SmithDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFlip DixonPORTAL · RUTGERS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB57%Tanner MorganQB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL41%Thomas RushDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrill CarterPORTAL · TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL35%Chuck FiliagaOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAxel RuschmeyerOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE26%Michael Brown-StephensPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan WrightPORTAL · TCU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBSean Tyler · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANDarius Taylor · SIGNEE ★4Marquese Williams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBRyan Selig · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANAlex Elliott · SIGNEE ★3Matt Kingsbury · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJack Henderson · PORTAL ★3 · SE LOUISIANACraig McDonald · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNZa'Quan Bryan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDrew Viotto · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLChris Collins · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAKarter Menz · SIGNEE ★3Martin Owusu · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJerome Williams · SIGNEE ★4Greg Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Phillip Daniels · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEElijah Spencer · PORTAL ★4 · CHARLOTTECorey Crooms · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANDonielle Hayes · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MINNESOTA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.812 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.59 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.029 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB29294510042 OF 4 GRADED
RB5656645585 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE393967772310 OF 23 GRADED
OL46465691197 OF 19 GRADED
DL424276901811 OF 18 GRADED
LB38386351157 OF 15 GRADED
DB434367591913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE59th59
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%49
RECRUITING CLASS#45 · 2/26 BC67
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 10 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%42
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNCMACK BROWN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MINNP.J. FLECK7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMINN OFFENSEUNC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMINNESOTA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MINN QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMINNESOTA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MINN OFFENSIVE LINEn=199% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS18% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMINNESOTA OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MINN RUNNING BACKSn=845% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554682%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455581%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMINNESOTA OFFENSESECONDARYNORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE MINN PASS CATCHERSn=2323% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNC SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
+18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MINN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.8%
54.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.0%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MINN, ORANGE = UNC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE