SAT 16:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
11-3
41
25
64
57%
32
28
27.5
-500
-7.5
HOME
3
3-9
23
19
18
58%
75
44
20.0
+360
+7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALTULN21—USM3
CLOSED TULN -7.5TOTAL 47.5TULN COVERED · 24 POINTS · UNDER
TULN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USM
TULN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADTULN -7.5
IMPLIED — TULN27.5
IMPLIED — USM20.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs9.1-3.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.9
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.2-8.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
SOUTHERN MISS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANESOUTHERN MISS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB78%Tyjae SpearsRB · 74% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Dorian WilliamsLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick AndersonLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE61%Tyrick JamesTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill WallaceTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShae WyattWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB59%Macon ClarkS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLarry BrooksS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLummie Young IVS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL25%Joey ClaybrookOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKanan RayOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL10%Tylo PhillipsDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBArnold Barnes III · SIGNEE ★3Trey Cornist · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBTyler Grubbs · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHMakai Williams · SIGNEE ★3Jean Claude Joseph · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEYulkeith Brown · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MDontae Fleming · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANAHunter Summers · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBKameron Pedescleaux · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANAA.J. Hampton · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNJai Eugene Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCameron Wire · PORTAL ★3 · LSUDarion Reed · SIGNEE ★3Landry Cannon · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMatthew Fobbs-White · SIGNEE ★3AJ Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Jahrie Garner · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.570 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
68.080 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB60604710073 OF 7 GRADED
RB686881297 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE525266812313 OF 23 GRADED
OL555558801511 OF 15 GRADED
DL646463941914 OF 19 GRADED
LB51513141139 OF 13 GRADED
DB565654692417 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE41st41
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%42
RECRUITING CLASS#71 · 0/20 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 7 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX45%88
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMWILL HALL3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNWILLIE FRITZ8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TULN QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1520% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TULN RUNNING BACKSn=998% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554682%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2319% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM45% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.8%
58.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS54.9%
56.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE