SAT 17:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
14-1
82
98
65
89%
35
83
36.3
-750
-15.0
HOME
7
4-8
81
20
69
21%
15
91
21.3
+500
+15.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALWASH41—MSU7
CLOSED WASH -15.0TOTAL 57.5WASH COVERED · 48 POINTS · UNDER
WASH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MSU
WASH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADWASH -15.0
IMPLIED — WASH36.3
IMPLIED — MSU21.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT33 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 33 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
WASHRECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs9.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+3.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD7-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.1
WASHINGTON won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONMICHIGAN STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB76%Wayne TaulapapaRB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam DavisRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL51%Corey LucianoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry BainivaluOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxson KirklandOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Cam BrightLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKristopher MollLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Alex CookS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan PerrymanCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL19%Jeremiah MartinDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE8%Taj DavisPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Sam HuardPORTAL · CAL POLY · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDillon Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDaniyel Ngata · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATETybo Rogers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLElishah Jackett · SIGNEE ★4Landen Hatchett · SIGNEE ★4Kahlee Tafai · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBRalen Goforth · PORTAL ★3 · USCDeven Bryant · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Whitney · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJabbar Muhammad · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATECaleb Presley · SIGNEE ★4Curley Reed III · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJoe Moore · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEAnthony James · SIGNEE ★3Elinneus Davis · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEGermie Bernard · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEJosh Cuevas · PORTAL ★4 · CAL POLYTaeshaun Lyons · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBAustin Mack · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.776 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.349 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.088 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB82827510072 OF 7 GRADED
RB5757833076 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE747474862220 OF 22 GRADED
OL717188771911 OF 19 GRADED
DL353570972018 OF 20 GRADED
LB39394780118 OF 11 GRADED
DB656580712418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#26 · 8/27 BC81
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 10 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX46%90
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUHARLON BARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHKALEN DEBOER2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE WASH QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1923% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE WASH RUNNING BACKSn=770% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555476%37%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455271%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE WASH PASS CATCHERSn=2214% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
+47
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS47.4%
55.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.8%
70.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE