SAT 20:00 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP73|O/U68.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
5-8
20
11
35
61%
46
20
15.0
—
+38.0
HOME
55
12-2
93
99
90
81%
67
63
53.0
—
-38.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALHAW10—ORE55
CLOSED ORE -38.0TOTAL 68.0ORE COVERED · 65 POINTS · UNDER
HAW
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL68.0
SPREADORE -38.0
IMPLIED — HAW15.0
IMPLIED — ORE53.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT30 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 30 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
HAWRECORD OVERSTATES
5-8ACTUALvs3.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.8
HAWAI'I won 5 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.8
OREGON won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHAWAI'IOREGON2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL72%Austin HoppOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIlm ManningOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah VanterpoolOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB69%Dedrick ParsonRB · 69% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE63%Caleb PhillipsTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MurrayTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion BowensWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Penei PavihiLB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB43%Malik HausmanDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHugh Nelson IIDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeonard LeeDB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL29%Blessman Ta'alaDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKolby WyattDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMataio SoliDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%Cammon CooperQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJoshua Atkins · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTONIsaac Maugaleoo · SIGNEE ★3KT Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TESteven McBride · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASKainoa Carvalho · SIGNEE ★3Maclane Watkins · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBPatrick Hisatake · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAJamih Otis · SIGNEE ★3Vaifanua Peko · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBOakie Salave'a · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOCameron Stone · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGElijah Palmer · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLElijah Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAKuao Peihopa · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJosh Jerome · PORTAL ★2 · EASTERN WASHINGTON3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJohn-Keawe Sagapolutele · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HAWAI'I
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.255 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
45.028 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.372 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3636449963 OF 6 GRADED
RB2020304375 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE272739552315 OF 23 GRADED
OL252538642012 OF 20 GRADED
DL494928832116 OF 21 GRADED
LB53533276127 OF 12 GRADED
DB464637632315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE20th20
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%25
RECRUITING CLASS#117 · 0/18 BC13
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 8 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%13
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HAWTIMMY CHANG2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHAW OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE HAW QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS49% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE HAW OFFENSIVE LINEn=2036% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHAWAI'I OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE HAW RUNNING BACKSn=757% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555763%58%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455364%38%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHAWAI'I OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE HAW PASS CATCHERSn=2345% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM60% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+9
−5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HAW
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS37.2%
50.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.5%
69.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HAW, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE