SAT 22:30 ET|MACKAY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP27|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
9-4
55
92
17
100%
18
86
43.3
—
-28.5
HOME
24
2-10
28
1
37
23%
39
14
14.8
—
+28.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALKU31—NEV24
CLOSED KU -28.5TOTAL 58.0NEV COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
KU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADKU -28.5
IMPLIED — KU43.3
IMPLIED — NEV14.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
KURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.8
KANSAS won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.1
NEVADA won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSASNEVADA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL65%Caleb SampsonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLonnie PhelpsDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalcolm LeeDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB24%Lorenzo McCaskillLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEriq GilyardPORTAL · UCONN · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL19%Earl Bostick Jr.OL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB14%Ky ThomasRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB4%Jarrett PaulPORTAL · APP STATE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Ethan VaskoPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE1%Steven McBridePORTAL · HAWAI'I · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLDylan Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNGage Keys · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAAustin Booker · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJB Brown · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENLogan Brantley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLLogan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINSpencer Lovell · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIACalvin Clements · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBDylan McDuffie · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHJohnny Thompson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBDamarius McGhee · PORTAL ★3 · LSUJameel Croft Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Jacoby Davis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TEJaden Hamm · SIGNEE ★3Jarred Sample · SIGNEE ★3Keaton Kubecka · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
67.791 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
80.096 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.777 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353218673 OF 7 GRADED
RB7474679295 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE6969331002513 OF 25 GRADED
OL606052971711 OF 17 GRADED
DL484851532113 OF 21 GRADED
LB474764631411 OF 14 GRADED
DB575769781912 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE55th55
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%51
RECRUITING CLASS#73 · 0/16 BC46
CLASS RANK TREND-21 · 3 CYCLES8
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX25%10
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVKEN WILSON2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KULANCE LEIPOLD3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKU OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE KU QUARTERBACKSn=714% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE KU OFFENSIVE LINEn=173% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS31% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE KU RUNNING BACKSn=98% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553965%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS OFFENSESECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE KU PASS CATCHERSn=250% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−28
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.8%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.0%
69.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KU, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE