SAT 12:00 ET|MICHIGAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
7-6
56
58
77
44%
20
87
10.0
+1100
+24.0
HOME
31
15-0
91
88
95
78%
21
61
34.0
-2800
-24.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALRUTG7—MICH31
CLOSED MICH -24.0TOTAL 44.0SPREAD PUSHED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
RUTG
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MICH
RUTG
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MICH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADMICH -24.0
IMPLIED — RUTG10.0
IMPLIED — MICH34.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.6
RUTGERS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MICHRECORD MATCHES
13-0ACTUALvs12.5-0.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+27.2
MICHIGAN won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 12.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRUTGERSMICHIGAN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE52%Aron CruickshankWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShameen JonesWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean RyanWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Avery YoungDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian IzienDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian BraswellDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%J.D. DiRenzoOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWillie TylerPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL20%Ifeanyi MaijehDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB14%Noah VedralQB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB9%Austin DeanLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB2%Parker DayRB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEShawn Bowman · PORTAL ★3 · MAINENaseim Brantley · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN ILLINOISJaQuae Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA, PA.5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBEric Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISMichael Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTACharles Amankwaa · PORTAL ★3 · AKRON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJaSire Peterson · SIGNEE ★3Nick Oliveira · SIGNEE ★3John Stone · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDjibril Rahman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAjani Sheppard · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBAbram Wright · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBJa'shon Benjamin · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RUTGERS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
66.488 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
62.672 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.590 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646289953 OF 5 GRADED
RB7373378874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE404069642713 OF 27 GRADED
OL575758852417 OF 24 GRADED
DL323260872014 OF 20 GRADED
LB36364960129 OF 12 GRADED
DB595964692816 OF 28 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE56th56
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%44
RECRUITING CLASS#57 · 0/21 BC58
CLASS RANK TREND-16 · 3 CYCLES18
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 7 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX17%3
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MICHJIM HARBAUGH8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RUTGGREG SCHIANO4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRUTG OFFENSEMICH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRUTGERS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN DEFENSE RUTG QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 66 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE RUTG OFFENSIVE LINEn=2415% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-7n=42 · 2 ROOMS16% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN DEFENSE RUTG RUNNING BACKSn=712% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557587%29%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456080%22%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERUTGERS OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN DEFENSE RUTG PASS CATCHERSn=2736% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MICH SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
−10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MICH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.4%
64.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.2%
57.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RUTG, ORANGE = MICH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE