SAT 15:30 ET|L&N FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
7-6
61
82
26
37%
81
41
20.0
+430
+13.5
HOME
56
10-4
80
85
93
23%
54
83
33.5
-625
-13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALBC28—LOU56
CLOSED LOU -13.5TOTAL 53.5LOU COVERED · 84 POINTS · OVER
BC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADLOU -13.5
IMPLIED — BC20.0
IMPLIED — LOU33.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BCRECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
BOSTON COLLEGE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LOURECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.2
LOUISVILLE won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGELOUISVILLE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB65%Jaiden WoodbeyDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason MaitrePORTAL · WISCONSIN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh DeBerryPORTAL · TEXAS A&M · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB55%Phil JurkovecPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE40%Zay FlowersWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaelen GillPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL37%Marcus ValdezDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChibueze OnwukaDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIzaiah HendersonDL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL5%Finn DirstineOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB4%Alec SinkfieldRB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBVictor Nelson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LIU POSTAlex Washington · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDKhari Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBThomas Castellanos · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJacobe Robinson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TERyan O'Keefe · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJaedn Skeete · SIGNEE ★3Montrell Wade · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLGeorge Rooks · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANEryx Daugherty · SIGNEE ★3Josiah Griffin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLLogan Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIAKyle Hergel · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEMichael Crounse · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBKye Robichaux · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYDatrell Jones · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
63.683 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
70.883 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.265 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676774772 OF 7 GRADED
RB6767705297 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE626262852414 OF 24 GRADED
OL797978451714 OF 17 GRADED
DL434353801912 OF 19 GRADED
LB34344290145 OF 14 GRADED
DB525249571914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE61st61
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%58
RECRUITING CLASS#61 · 0/18 BC55
CLASS RANK TREND-25 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 9 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%48
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LOUJEFF BROHMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCJEFF HAFLEY4TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSELOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELOUISVILLE DEFENSE BC QUARTERBACKSn=793% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1755% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS28% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7LOUISVILLE DEFENSE BC RUNNING BACKSn=948% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558074%17%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456669%33%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSESECONDARYLOUISVILLE DEFENSE BC PASS CATCHERSn=2415% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LOU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+21
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.5%
60.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.2%
68.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = LOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE