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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›ND @ MIA›OVERVIEWPLACEHOLDER DATA — THE API ANSWERED 502
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
ND @ MIA75
OSU @ NEB75
PSU @ ORE74
UTAH @ UCLA71
MICH @ TEX70
SC @ ALA68
ASU @ BAY62
SYR @ CLEM55
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
NOTRE DAME
MIAMI
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2026
SAT 19:30 ET|ABC|HARD ROCK STADIUM · MIAMI GARDENS FLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U54.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
#6AP
8FPI
NDINDNOTRE DAME
12-2
91
74
69
64%
58
74
26.0
+118
+2.5
HOME
#14AP
17FPI
MIAACCMIAMI
10-3
74
72
62
41%
74
61
28.5
-140
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DK FD MGM CZR
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED7 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR1 STAFF
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADMIA −2.5
IMPLIED — ND26.0
IMPLIED — MIA28.5
TOTAL RANK9 / 12
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
81FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
9 / 12
BY ENVIRONMENT
2 / 12
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by seven positions on a twelve-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST — NEITHER SIDE SLOWS THE OTHER
ND PACE26.8s
58
MIA PACE24.1s
74
SHARED PACE25.4s
68
PLAY VOLUME148
78
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ND64CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
72
PROE
61
TEMPO
58
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.28
72
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.11
76
FINISHING DRIVES4.81
68
MIA83CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
82
PROE
81
TEMPO
74
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.34
82
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.31
47
FINISHING DRIVES5.22
79
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD OVERSTATES
12-2ACTUALvs10.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD4-1
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.9
Twelve wins, a scoring profile describing ten. The market prices the record; the scoring profile is the other description of the same season.
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE−0.6 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD2-3
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.1
Ten wins against a scoring profile describing between ten and eleven. The record and the underlying performance say the same thing.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALL2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Braylon BraxtonPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStone EarlePORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB100%Jordan HoustonRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. TurnerPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan PayneRB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB100%Jaden YatesPORTAL · OLE MISS · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLandyn WatsonPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ'Coryan AndersonLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL94%Mike GreenDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris ThomasPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyQaze LeggsDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB83%J.J. RobertsDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacobie HendersonPORTAL · RUTGERS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh MotenPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE71%Christian FitzpatrickPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarl ChesterPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChuck MontgomeryPORTAL · SOUTHERN MISS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Jeremy JonesOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah EllisOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan OsburnOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEREFILLED
RBJo'shon Barbie · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEMichael Allen · PORTAL ★3 · UNLVTony Mathis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTON1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBJavae Gilmore · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEJibreel Al-Amin · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATEEahJay McAdams · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLJoseph Auzenne · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLEPaul Hutson III · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELLJaasai Simmons · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBSammy Etienne · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAZah Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIALouikenzy Jules · PORTAL ★3 · UNIVERSITY OF CHARLESTON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDemarcus Lacey · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSONVILLE STATESherone White Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTyler McDuffie · PORTAL ★3 · HAMPTONEvan Ferguson · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBAndrew Dudley · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
17.56 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.832 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
10.03 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757538063 OF 6 GRADED
RB313169076 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494924382112 OF 21 GRADED
OL545432781914 OF 19 GRADED
DL585860221311 OF 13 GRADED
LB57575231510 OF 15 GRADED
DB444441342016 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE36th36
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%53
RECRUITING CLASS#120 · 0/18 BC11
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 45 IN / 49 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MRSHTONY GIBSONFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
PACE
8686
PASS RATE
77
EXPLOSIVENESS
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
33
HAVOC
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
31OF 136
TAL
88
PERF
79
RET
92
NATIONAL
52OF 136
RET
52
FULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE
ND QUARTERBACKSn=2 · 468 OBS0% VACATED
PROJECTED
EPA/DB
EXPL
FPT/G
★
C.J. CARRQBRETUNCONTESTED
+0.2414.1%19.8★5
K. MINCHEYQBRET
−0.029.4%2.1★4
ATTEMPT SHARE IS SETTLED — EFFICIENCY, EXPLOSIVENESS AND FANTASY SCORING REPLACE SHARE AND USAGE AT THIS POSITION · HALF-PPR
MIA FULL DEFENSE3 ROOMS · 4,120 OBS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.276654%0.48
LINEBACKERSLB
0.185861%0.39
SECONDARYDB
0.557164%0.44
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — ROOMS BLENDED BY WEIGHT, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
27OF 136
TAL
86
PERF
80
RET
74
DL
44OF 136
DL RET
58
LB
51OF 136
LB RET
61
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=7 · 3,110 OBS26% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
SNAP
TAL
EXP
★
A. SULLIVANOTRET
98%914 YR★4
B. NELSONOGRET
94%883 YR★4
R. HUFANGACLAST YR ≈
88%612 YR★3
G. MERRIWEATHEROGPORTAL ★3 · PURDUE
76%583 YR★3
T. LOVEOTRET
71%842 YR★4
SHOW ALL 7
THREE OF FIVE STARTING SPOTS RETURN · LINEMEN SCORE NO FANTASY POINTS AND CARRY NO USAGE — PEDIGREE AND EXPERIENCE CARRY THE ROOM INSTEAD
MIA FRONT-7 · PASS RUSHn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
PRSS
RSTP
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%12.1%68%★4
F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%14.4%61%★3
W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%6.2%64%★4
A. PACEDLRET
12%8.8%58%★3
T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%3.1%51%★4
D. CURRYLBRET
8%5.1%60%★3
M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%9.4%49%★4
SHOW ALL 9
DEFENSIVE LINE AND LINEBACKERS BLENDED 0.60 / 0.40 · PRESSURE AND RUN-STOP ARE THE LINE'S SIDE OF THE MATCHUP
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
47OF 136
TAL
71
PERF
64
RET
58
DL
44OF 136
DL RET
58
LB
51OF 136
LB RET
61
FRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE
ND RUNNING BACKSn=4 · 741 OBS42% VACATED
PROJECTED
CAR
USE
FPT/G
★
J. PRICERBRET
38%6111.4★4
A. LOVERBRET
31%489.2★4
K. GREATHOUSERBTRUE FR
24%12—★4
N. MINORRBTRUE FR
7%6—★3
NO BACK CLEARS THE 55% CONCENTRATION MARK — CARRIES SPLIT THREE WAYS · FPT/G IS LAST SEASON'S HALF-PPR SCORING IN A DIFFERENT ROLE
MIA FRONT-7 · RUN FRONTn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
RSTP
TFL
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%68%8.4%★4
F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%61%9.1%★3
W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%64%6.1%★4
A. PACEDLRET
12%58%5.4%★3
T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%51%3.2%★4
D. CURRYLBRET
8%60%4.8%★3
M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%49%5.9%★4
SHOW ALL 9
SAME FRONT-7, WEIGHTED 0.55 / 0.45 FOR THE BACKFIELD · RUN-STOP AND TACKLE-FOR-LOSS REPLACE THE PASS-RUSH COLUMN
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSE
NATIONAL
54OF 136
TAL
74
PERF
58
RET
61
DB
39OF 136
DB RET
64
SECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE
ND PASS-CATCHERSn=7 · 1,884 OBS39% VACATED
PROJECTED
TGT
USE
FPT/G
★
J. FAISONWRRET
24%5810.8★4
M. EVANSTERET
21%528.4★3
C. GREATHOUSEWRLAST YR ≈
19%346.1★4
W. LOVEWRPORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA
16%417.9★3
K. FLOREWRRET
11%244.2★3
SHOW ALL 7
FOUR PLAYERS BETWEEN 16% AND 24% TARGET SHARE — NOBODY REACHES THE 45% MARK · NO RETURNING PASS-CATCHER CLEARED 11 FPT/G
MIA SECONDARYn=7 · 2,240 OBS36% VACATED
SECONDARY BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
COV
BALL
★
D. IVEYCBRET
25%7164★3
O. STROUDCBPORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON
22%6674★4
M. REDDINGSRET
20%5852★3
K. ALLENCBRET
14%6148★3
J. OKONKWOSTRUE FR
12%——★4
SHOW ALL 7
THE MOST INTACT UNIT ON THIS DEFENSE — TWO STARTING CORNERS AND A SAFETY RETURN
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
71.2
66.8
— OFFENSE
74.1
72.3
— DEFENSE
68.9
61.4
SP+ OVERALL
24.1
19.8
FPI
21.4
17.2
ELO
1892
1811
TALENT
91
74
PRODUCTION
82
76
TALENT − PRODUCTION
+9
−2
BLUE-CHIP RATIO
0.71
0.44
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION-GROUP GRADES ABOVE
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
OFF EFFICIENCY
47.2%
45.8%
DEF EFFICIENCY
38.9%
40.3%
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
1.28
1.34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
1.11
1.31
FINISHING DRIVES
4.81
5.22
FIELD POSITION
+2.1
−0.4
TURNOVER MARGIN
+0.9
+0.1
TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THE FIVE YEAR OVER YEAR AND IS WEIGHTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE STATED-FACT ORDER
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
PASS RATE
52.1%
58.9%
PROE
+2.1
+5.8
PACE
26.8s
24.1s
4TH-DOWN GO RATE
38%
51%
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
54.1%
44.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
81.4%
88.2%
PLAYS / GAME
71.8
76.4
GARBAGE-TIME SHARE
9.1%
12.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY-BY-PLAY — NO CHARTED-ALIGNMENT INPUTS · PROE IS PACE-ADJUSTED · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE