SAT 17:00 ET|HANCOCK WHITNEY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP32|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
5-7
9
39
2
36%
40
2
15.8
+475
+16.0
HOME
30
7-6
42
71
57
86%
64
42
31.8
-700
-16.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCMU34—USA30
CLOSED USA -16.0TOTAL 47.5CMU COVERED · 64 POINTS · OVER
CMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADUSA -16.0
IMPLIED — CMU15.8
IMPLIED — USA31.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT37 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 37 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CMURECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.9
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.0
SOUTH ALABAMA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL MICHIGANSOUTH ALABAMA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB81%Daniel RichardsonPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · 81% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE67%Joel WilsonTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarlos CarriereWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFinn HoganPORTAL · BOWLING GREEN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB59%Lew Nichols IIIRB · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL40%Thomas IncoomDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Wesley WhitesideDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaQuan Johnson Jr.PORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Jamezz KimbroughOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyden FerrisPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB21%Ronald Kent Jr.DB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB1%Cory Gildersleeve Jr.LB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEStephan Bracey · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINShatavious Hogan · SIGNEE ★3Javorian Wimberly · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJakivion Calip · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Jenkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLBrent Hoppe · SIGNEE ★3Brady Neu · SIGNEE ★3Keshawn Hayden · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJacob Booth · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Blum · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Nehf · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMark-Allen Gay · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCade Riddle · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.566 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.112 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
71.394 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB56563010041 OF 4 GRADED
RB54542594115 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE363627732619 OF 26 GRADED
OL393930541710 OF 17 GRADED
DL333327991711 OF 17 GRADED
LB181836100118 OF 11 GRADED
DB363642822211 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#91 · 0/22 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 2 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX43%82
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USAKANE WOMMACK3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CMUJIM MCELWAIN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1515
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5252
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCMU OFFENSEUSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE CMU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS8% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE CMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1746% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS2% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE CMU RUNNING BACKSn=116% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555298%7%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE CMU PASS CATCHERSn=2627% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM13% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+1
−25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.0%
56.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.5%
64.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CMU, ORANGE = USA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE