SAT 19:30 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
12-2
96
74
88
61%
73
81
33.5
-600
-17.5
HOME
6
3-9
67
43
5
65%
87
65
16.0
+425
+17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALTEX38—BAY6
CLOSED TEX -17.5TOTAL 49.5TEX COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
TEX
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADTEX -17.5
IMPLIED — TEX33.5
IMPLIED — BAY16.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT30 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 30 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TEXRECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.6
TEXAS won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
BAYLOR won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXASBAYLOR2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB73%Bijan RobinsonRB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRoschon JohnsonRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND.J. HarrisPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL50%Ovie OghoufoPORTAL · LSU · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeondre CoburnDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMoro OjomoDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB39%DeMarvion OvershownLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDiamonte Tucker-DorseyLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB32%Anthony CookDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Shawn JamisonDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB28%Hudson CardPORTAL · PURDUE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE8%Tarique MiltonWR · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL4%Andrej KaricPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCJ Baxter · SIGNEE ★5Quintrevion Wisner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTrill Carter · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAColton Vasek · SIGNEE ★4Derion Gullette · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAnthony Hill Jr. · SIGNEE ★5Tausili Akana · SIGNEE ★4S'Maje Burrell · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBGavin Holmes · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTJalen Catalon · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASMalik Muhammad · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBArch Manning · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
WR/TEAdonai Mitchell · PORTAL ★5 · GEORGIAJohntay Cook · SIGNEE ★5Ryan Niblett · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLJaydon Chatman · SIGNEE ★4Trevor Goosby · SIGNEE ★4Payton Kirkland · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
67.790 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
82.398 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.968 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB39391008563 OF 6 GRADED
RB6969866786 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE727293792411 OF 24 GRADED
OL696986992012 OF 20 GRADED
DL717180881714 OF 17 GRADED
LB696972821510 OF 15 GRADED
DB525288702117 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE96th96
BLUE-CHIP RATIO63%95
RECRUITING CLASS#3 · 18/26 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+14 · 3 CYCLES78
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-4 · 5 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%36
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEX OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE TEX QUARTERBACKSn=615% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE TEX OFFENSIVE LINEn=201% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE TEX RUNNING BACKSn=833% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555570%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE TEX PASS CATCHERSn=2421% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM41% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾0
+39
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEX
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
47.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.3%
61.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEX, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE