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HOME›SLATE›2023›WEEK 5›COLG @ COR›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
LSU @ MISS85
LOU @ NCSU73
UTAH @ ORST73
CLEM @ SYR72
ND @ DUKE70
TA&M @ ARK68
UGA @ AUB68
ORE @ STAN68
PITT @ VT68
ALA @ MSST67
FLA @ UK66
MIZ @ VAN66
BOIS @ MEM66
UVA @ BC65
MSU @ IOWA65
TROY @ GAST64
MICH @ NEB63
JXST @ SHSU62
PSU @ NU62
USA @ JMU62
IU @ MD62
WVU @ TCU62
USC @ COLO61
BUF @ AKR61
WASH @ ARIZ61
TXST @ USM60
ECU @ RICE60
ODU @ MRSH59
ASU @ CAL58
KU @ TEX58
ILL @ PUR57
CLT @ SMU57
HOU @ TTU55
USF @ NAVY54
SC @ TENN54
BAY @ UCF52
ISU @ OU52
NIU @ TOL51
SDSU @ AF51
ARST @ MASS50
CCU @ GASO49
CIN @ BYU48
BGSU @ GT48
UNM @ WYO47
UL @ MINN45
M-OH @ KENT45
APP @ ULM43
TEM @ TLSA42
MTSU @ WKU42
BALL @ WMU41
LT @ UTEP40
USU @ CONN38
UAB @ TULN37
HAW @ UNLV37
EMU @ CMU36
NEV @ FRES35
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
COLGATE
CORNELL
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2023
SAT 14:00 ET|SCHOELLKOPF FIELDNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/UCOLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
—FPI
COLGPATCOLGATE
35
6-5
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
HOME
—AP
—FPI
CORIVYCORNELL
25
3-7
0
0
0
0%
0
—
0.0
—
—
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS
FINALCOLG35—COR25
COLG
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
COR
35
POINTS
25
395
TOTAL YARDS
384
179 (16-25)
PASSING
261 (27-43)
216 (48)
RUSHING
123 (31)
22
FIRST DOWNS
19
10-17
THIRD DOWN
4-16
0-1
FOURTH DOWN
2-4
30:52
TIME OF POSS.
29:08
6-55
PENALTIES
6-64
2
TURNOVERS
2
—
SACKS
—
—
QB HURRIES
—
COLG
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
COR
0.089
SEASON 0.084
EPA / PLAY
0.135
SEASON 0.118
40.5%
SEASON 39.7%
SUCCESS RATE
37.8%
SEASON 39.5%
14.9%
SEASON 11.7%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
16.2%
SEASON 11.9%
5.47
SEASON 4.73
YARDS / PLAY
5.03
SEASON 5.14
0.135
SEASON 0.225
EPA ALLOWED
0.089
SEASON 0.203
37.8%
SEASON 45.1%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
40.5%
SEASON 42.4%
16.2%
SEASON 14.8%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
14.9%
SEASON 15.5%
37.9%
SEASON 16.9%
STUFF RATE
17.4%
SEASON 15.7%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT0 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
No 2023 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGERCOLGATECORNELL2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Coleman CocoPORTAL · RICE · SHARE NOT MEASURED
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Marquis CooperPORTAL · BUFFALO · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TENO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLBrock Winsett · SIGNEEINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLGATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
0.00 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
RB———1002CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE————2CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL————0NO GRADING EVIDENCE
DL———372CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB———1001CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB———823CARRIED FROM 2022 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
COR—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
COLG—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCOLG OFFENSECOR OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLGATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
NATIONAL
—
RET
—
FULL DEFENSECORNELL DEFENSE
COLG QUARTERBACKSn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
QUARTERBACKS BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COR DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 1 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
———
SECONDARYDB
———
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLGATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7CORNELL DEFENSE
COLG OFFENSIVE LINEn=0RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COR FRONT-7n=1 · 2 ROOMSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MALIN WHITEDETRUE FR
—4TH YR——UNR—
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLGATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
100
DL
—
DL RET
—
LB
—
LB RET
—
FRONT-7CORNELL DEFENSE
COLG RUNNING BACKSn=20% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JAEDON HENRYRBRET
—4TH YR——UNR—
CHRIS GEERBTRUE FR
—3RD YR——★3—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COR FRONT-72 ROOMS · 1 PLAYERSRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55——0%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.45———
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLGATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
—
TAL
—
PERF
—
RET
—
DB
—
DB RET
—
SECONDARYCORNELL DEFENSE
COLG PASS CATCHERSn=2RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
MICHAEL BRESCIATERET
—4TH YR——★3—
JAKE RYANWRRET
—2ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
COR SECONDARYn=0 · 1 ROOMRETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
COVERAGE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = COLG, ORANGE = COR) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE