SAT 15:30 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP53|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
44
7-6
53
29
19
46%
100
6
25.8
+136
+3.0
HOME
30
5-7
1
8
67
61%
12
18
28.8
-162
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUSF44—NAVY30
CLOSED NAVY -3.0TOTAL 54.5USF COVERED · 74 POINTS · OVER
USF
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NAVY
USF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NAVY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADNAVY -3.0
IMPLIED — USF25.8
IMPLIED — NAVY28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
33FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT29 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 29 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
USFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.1
SOUTH FLORIDA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
NAVY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH FLORIDANAVY2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL73%Brad CecilOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemontrey JacobsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDemetris HarrisOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB72%Brian BattiePORTAL · AUBURN · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaren ManghamPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Chris CarterPORTAL · TULANE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WeaverPORTAL · COLORADO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHolden WillisPORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Rashawn YatesDE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJatorian HansfordDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrien GrantDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Dwayne BoylesLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavon HicksLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB36%Christian WilliamsS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMekhi LaPointeDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB35%Katravis MarshQB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLRJ Perry · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEZane Herring · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJames Jenkins · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNay'Quan Wright · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJaylen Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEJaden Alexis · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASWeston Wolff · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDTeigan Martin · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTY2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLD.J. Harris Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASLloyd Summerall · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAStantavious Smith · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBAndrew Mataafa · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHREFILLED
DBKendall Dennis · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAJarvis Lee · SIGNEE ★3Tawfiq Byard · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBBryce Archie · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAIsrael Carter · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.718 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
26.76 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.950 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262989653 OF 5 GRADED
RB32328350106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE464653482512 OF 25 GRADED
OL404053491914 OF 19 GRADED
DL434351651613 OF 16 GRADED
LB49493687118 OF 11 GRADED
DB464640702315 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%50
RECRUITING CLASS#76 · 0/17 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 18 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX20%6
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRYFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USFALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSF OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE USF QUARTERBACKSn=54% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 73 PLAYERS11% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE USF OFFENSIVE LINEn=1951% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=42 · 2 ROOMS22% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE USF RUNNING BACKSn=1050% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555880%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH FLORIDA OFFENSESECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE USF PASS CATCHERSn=2552% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=31 · 1 ROOM1% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+16
−14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.4%
77.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.1%
46.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USF, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE