SAT 19:30 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP33|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
16
3-9
43
5
53
14%
41
10
15.0
+1100
+23.5
HOME
34
11-3
76
58
86
42%
80
11
38.5
-2100
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCLT16—SMU34
CLOSED SMU -23.5TOTAL 53.5CLT COVERED · 50 POINTS · UNDER
CLT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADSMU -23.5
IMPLIED — CLT15.0
IMPLIED — SMU38.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT27 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 27 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CLTRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
CHARLOTTE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.5-1.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.2
SMU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCHARLOTTESMU2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB96%Chris ReynoldsQB · 72% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier WilliamsQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames FosterQB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE77%Grant DuBoseWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah SpencerPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVictor TuckerWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL72%Ashton GistOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt RossoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon HughesPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB71%Geo HowardCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSolomon RogersPORTAL · JACKSON STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson WhiteheadDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Amir SiddiqDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarkees WattsDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKofi WardlowDE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Chase MonroeLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONB.J. TurnerPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA A&T · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB35%ChaVon McEachernRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohnny MartinPORTAL · STONY BROOK · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCalvin CampRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCarson Black · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEGus McGee · PORTAL ★3 · SAN DIEGO STATEIke White · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAJaden Bradley · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGH2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAustin Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOAndrew Adair · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONKevin Williams · PORTAL ★2 · NEBRASKA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBAl-Ma'hi Ali · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Dontae Balfour · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINALadaeson DeAndre Hollins · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLGreg Hudgins · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEJulius Welschof · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANEmmanuel Balogun · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALL2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNikhai Hill-Green · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANKeoni Denny · SIGNEE ★3Brian Bates · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBDurell Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CHARLOTTE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.08 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.415 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.78 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646885964 OF 6 GRADED
RB3636424986 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE575753552515 OF 25 GRADED
OL313139202412 OF 24 GRADED
DL414133421410 OF 14 GRADED
LB48486021159 OF 15 GRADED
DB464655132115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE43rd43
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%65
RECRUITING CLASS#129 · 0/15 BC4
CLASS RANK TREND-28 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 16 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%47
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLTBIFF POGGIFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLT OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE CLT QUARTERBACKSn=641% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS61% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7SMU DEFENSE CLT OFFENSIVE LINEn=2480% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS64% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCHARLOTTE OFFENSEFRONT-7SMU DEFENSE CLT RUNNING BACKSn=851% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS67% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557653%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECHARLOTTE OFFENSESECONDARYSMU DEFENSE CLT PASS CATCHERSn=2545% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM58% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+38
−8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.6%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.1%
67.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLT, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE