SAT 22:30 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
2-10
28
1
37
23%
39
8
13.5
+1300
+24.5
HOME
27
9-4
44
26
36
17%
69
28
38.0
-2800
-24.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNEV9—FRES27
CLOSED FRES -24.5TOTAL 51.5NEV COVERED · 36 POINTS · UNDER
NEV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
NEV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 5 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADFRES -24.5
IMPLIED — NEV13.5
IMPLIED — FRES38.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
NEVRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.1
NEVADA won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADAFRESNO STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB92%Toa TauaRB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevonte LeeRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB61%Nate CoxQB · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE48%Jacob MunroTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ CasteelWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarlton Brown IIIPORTAL · CAL POLY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB45%Bentlee SandersDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyson WilliamsDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyriq MackDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL31%Grant StarckPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey HamiltonOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL26%Dom PetersonDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristopher LoveDT · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB25%Maurice WilmerPORTAL · UCONN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosiah BradleyLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBSean Dollars · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONPeyton Dixon · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOAshton Hayes · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBBrendon Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOJax Leatherwood · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEKeleki Latu · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAJohn Jackson III · PORTAL ★3 · USCMarshaun Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTre Weed · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN WASHINGTONJonah Lewis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRJ Esmon · SIGNEE ★3Tyson Ruffins · SIGNEE ★3Josiah Timoteo · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLMackavelli Malotumau · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECHHenry Ikahihifo · PORTAL ★2 · CALIFORNIAREFILLED
LBAdrian Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONJackson LaDuke · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONMalcolm McClure · PORTAL · CALIFORNIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.471 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.445 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.278 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575759863 OF 6 GRADED
RB9976575 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE303050672314 OF 23 GRADED
OL272747751811 OF 18 GRADED
DL393940651714 OF 17 GRADED
LB282847751611 OF 16 GRADED
DB393936682517 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE28th28
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%43
RECRUITING CLASS#107 · 0/15 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-21 · 3 CYCLES8
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 13 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%42
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESJEFF TEDFORD2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVKEN WILSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE NEV QUARTERBACKSn=692% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=1825% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE NEV RUNNING BACKSn=795% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554583%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2333% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+25
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.9%
43.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.2%
71.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE