WED 20:00 ET|JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP29|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 45
9-4
6
10
85
0%
97
38
24.5
+140
+3.0
HOME
30
4-8
35
22
33
34%
67
10
27.5
-165
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALJXST45—MTSU30
CLOSED MTSU -3.0TOTAL 52.0JXST COVERED · 75 POINTS · OVER
JXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MTSU
JXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MTSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADMTSU -3.0
IMPLIED — JXST24.5
IMPLIED — MTSU27.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
36FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MTSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.8
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERJACKSONVILLE STATEMIDDLE TENNESSEE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Aaron McLaughlinQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Matt LaRocheRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Keishoen JarrettTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Ashton GrableOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Mitchell Etheridge IIIDE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Cam WilliamsLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Amon ScarbroughS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEarl Woods III · SIGNEE ★3Cam Vaughn · SIGNEEINTACT
RBMalik Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEINTACT
WR/TEDallan Wright · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA TECHAnthony Benjamin · SIGNEE ★3Ridge Redd · SIGNEEINTACT
OLK.D. Arnold · SIGNEECam Griffin · SIGNEEDaveion Harley · SIGNEEINTACT
DLJackson Veasy · SIGNEEINTACT
LBDajwon DeLoach · SIGNEEINTACT
DBDee Newsome · SIGNEEZechariah Poyser · SIGNEETravis Franklin Jr. · SIGNEEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · JACKSONVILLE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3535336363 OF 6 GRADED
RB3333365086 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE383850462917 OF 29 GRADED
OL575775932010 OF 20 GRADED
DL616150732215 OF 22 GRADED
LB606022381110 OF 11 GRADED
DB555551662517 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE6th6
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%34
RECRUITING CLASS#163 · 0/13 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 2 IN / 0 OUT—
COACH STATUS——
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%54
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MTSURICK STOCKSTILL8TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
JXSTRICH RODRIGUEZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESJXST OFFENSEMTSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE JXST QUARTERBACKSn=637% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE JXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=207% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS22% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE JXST RUNNING BACKSn=850% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS24% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553892%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEJACKSONVILLE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE JXST PASS CATCHERSn=2954% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM15% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−43
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
JXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS75.0%
50.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.4%
70.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = JXST, ORANGE = MTSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE