WED 21:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
FIUCUSAFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 17
4-8
34
5
31
68%
9
20
21.5
+195
+6.5
HOME
34
10-5
17
67
24
84%
10
30
28.0
-235
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALFIU17—NMSU34
CLOSED NMSU -6.5TOTAL 49.5NMSU COVERED · 51 POINTS · OVER
FIU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NMSU
FIU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NMSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADNMSU -6.5
IMPLIED — FIU21.5
IMPLIED — NMSU28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
FIURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.0-9.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
10-4ACTUALvs9.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
NEW MEXICO STATE won 10 of 14 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA INTERNATIONALNEW MEXICO STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB43%Demetrius HillDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew VolmarPORTAL · UL MONROE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian HallDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB41%E.J. WilsonPORTAL · TEMPLE · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB40%Gaethan BernadelPORTAL · STANFORD · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake HowardLB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL38%Shamar Hobdy-LeePORTAL · HOUSTON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulius PiercePORTAL · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE35%Rivaldo FairweatherPORTAL · AUBURN · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrese ChambersPORTAL · MARYLAND · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%Davon StricklandDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaun Peterson Jr.PORTAL · UCF · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB5%Gunnar HolmbergQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBBobby Salla · PORTAL ★2 · TEMPLEJoJo Evans · PORTAL ★2 · KENT STATEJamari Holliman · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBShomari Lawrence · PORTAL ★2 · SOUTH DAKOTAREFILLED
LBAvery Huff · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIElijah Anderson-Taylor · PORTAL ★2 · NORTHERN COLORADOREFILLED
OLJaheim Buchanon · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Michel · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEChristian Pedersen · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEShaborne Demps · SIGNEE ★3Kyle McNeal · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLClaude Larkins · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEAJ Cobb · SIGNEE ★3Toddrick Brewton · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBKeyone Jenkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.474 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
70.681 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.853 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB1919431363 OF 6 GRADED
RB3737583972 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505072762113 OF 21 GRADED
OL202035851812 OF 18 GRADED
DL363646691714 OF 17 GRADED
LB48484587138 OF 13 GRADED
DB434355922214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%17
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/19 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND-12 · 2 CYCLES26
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 8 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX40%67
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUJERRY KILL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FIUMIKE MACINTYRE2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7777
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFIU OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE FIU QUARTERBACKSn=687% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE FIU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1815% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE FIU RUNNING BACKSn=761% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554672%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE FIU PASS CATCHERSn=2124% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+28
−31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FIU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.8%
63.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.6%
67.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FIU, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE