SAT 12:00 ET|COTTON BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
34
10-3
94
95
70
53%
91
77
27.5
+154
+5.5
HOME
30
12-2
96
74
88
61%
73
69
33.0
-225
-5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOU34—TEX30
CLOSED TEX -5.5TOTAL 60.5OU COVERED · 64 POINTS · OVER
OU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADTEX -5.5
IMPLIED — OU27.5
IMPLIED — TEX33.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+20.9
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.6
TEXAS won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMATEXAS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB54%Eric GrayRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL54%Chris MurrayOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnton HarrisonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWanya MorrisOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%DaShaun WhiteLB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE47%Brayden WillisTE · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTheo Wease Jr.PORTAL · MISSOURI · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel ParkerTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB45%Justin BroilesDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. ColdonDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden DavisPORTAL · MIAMI · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL39%David UgwoegbuPORTAL · HOUSTON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen RedmondDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeffery JohnsonDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB1%Nick EversQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBHollywood Smothers · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLWalter Rouse · PORTAL ★4 · STANFORDCayden Green · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Bates · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBDasan McCullough · PORTAL ★4 · INDIANASammy Omosigho · SIGNEE ★4Lewis Carter · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
WR/TEBrenen Thompson · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASAndrel Anthony · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANJaquaize Pettaway · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBPeyton Bowen · SIGNEE ★5Makari Vickers · SIGNEE ★4Jacobe Johnson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTrace Ford · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEDavon Sears · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS STATERondell Bothroyd · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJackson Arnold · SIGNEE ★5INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.547 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.048 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.747 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7676908552 OF 5 GRADED
RB5959699686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE686876702520 OF 25 GRADED
OL575780601916 OF 19 GRADED
DL535379522220 OF 22 GRADED
LB62628876159 OF 15 GRADED
DB555581682418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE94th94
BLUE-CHIP RATIO56%93
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 16/26 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 16 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX30%23
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OUBRENT VENABLES2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOU OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE OU QUARTERBACKSn=515% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1940% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OU RUNNING BACKSn=84% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557188%71%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456982%47%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE OU PASS CATCHERSn=2530% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.5%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.4%
62.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OU, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE