SAT 14:00 ET|CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
6-7
31
14
66
47%
51
49
18.8
+210
+6.5
HOME
48
9-4
73
52
91
39%
48
80
25.3
-250
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMRSH41—NCSU48
CLOSED NCSU -6.5TOTAL 44.0NCSU COVERED · 89 POINTS · OVER
MRSH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NCSU
MRSH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NCSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADNCSU -6.5
IMPLIED — MRSH18.8
IMPLIED — NCSU25.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
31FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MRSHRECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.9
MARSHALL won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.7
NC STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLNC STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB70%Khalan LabornRB · 69% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE69%Devin MillerTE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorey GammageWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStacey Marshall Jr.TE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Steven GilmoreDB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre' SamPORTAL · LSU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEJ JacksonPORTAL · APP STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB53%Charlie GrayLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbraham BeauplanLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJace BoboLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Anthony WattsDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoby CumberlanderDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONImmanuel BushPORTAL · JAMES MADISON · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB38%Henry ColombiQB · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL31%Kendrick SartorOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCedrice PaillantOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TECade Conley · PORTAL ★2 · CENTRAL MICHIGANAntwaan Mays · SIGNEE ★3Tracy Stephens · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBMyles Bell · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNJ.J. Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTAhmere Foster · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBStephen Dix Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATEKeSean Brown · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJayven Hall · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChris Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJalil Rivera-Harvey · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATELandyn Watson · PORTAL ★3 · TCU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
OLLloyd Willis · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEAltrique Barlow · PORTAL ★3 · TCUIsaac Clary · SIGNEE ★2REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.421 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
58.261 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.314 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4848457564 OF 6 GRADED
RB313189887 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE585837462516 OF 25 GRADED
OL464643751910 OF 19 GRADED
DL616133681917 OF 19 GRADED
LB66664248148 OF 14 GRADED
DB545449452511 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%37
RECRUITING CLASS#125 · 0/18 BC7
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 11 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX35%46
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHCHARLES HUFF3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=625% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1925% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS9% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=82% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557285%40%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4567100%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSESECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2554% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.9%
59.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
57.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE