SAT 19:00 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
6-7
12
7
55
21%
39
55
28.3
+102
+1.5
HOME
13
3-9
23
19
18
58%
75
48
29.8
-155
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALODU17—USM13
CLOSED USM -1.5TOTAL 58.0ODU COVERED · 30 POINTS · UNDER
ODU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADUSM -1.5
IMPLIED — ODU28.3
IMPLIED — USM29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
46FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 49-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ODURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.3
OLD DOMINION won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.2-8.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
SOUTHERN MISS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROLD DOMINIONSOUTHERN MISS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Hayden WolffPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB73%Blake WatsonPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB69%R'Tarriun JohnsonS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre Hawkins IIICB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTobias HarrisCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Marcus HaynesDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlonzo Ford Jr.DT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyre BibbyDT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Khadere KountaPORTAL · UCLA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick SaldiveriOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyran HuntOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB47%Ryan HenryLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven WilliamsLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE40%Ali JenningsPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonta Anthony Jr.TE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZack KuntzTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBColton Joseph · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDevin Roche · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBNate Wyatt · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLEAshton Whitner · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNJordan Holmes · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJalen Satchell · PORTAL ★3 · TEMPLEJahlil Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAGideon Bedada · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChris Chernak · PORTAL ★2 · GRAMBLINGCaleb Bryant · SIGNEESpencer Dow · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBSayyid Stevens · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEMario Thompson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEQuan Dunbar · SIGNEE ★3MarShawn Ferguson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Ethan Presutty · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OLD DOMINION
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.915 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.957 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
34.99 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB9927052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333166265 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE424241472012 OF 20 GRADED
OL21214096199 OF 19 GRADED
DL292943681711 OF 17 GRADED
LB565654701410 OF 14 GRADED
DB464649712613 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%19
RECRUITING CLASS#122 · 0/21 BC9
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 6 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%76
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMWILL HALL3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ODURICKY RAHNE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESODU OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE ODU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 48 PLAYERS36% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE ODU OFFENSIVE LINEn=194% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOLD DOMINION OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE ODU RUNNING BACKSn=638% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554682%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOLD DOMINION OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE ODU PASS CATCHERSn=2053% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM45% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−14
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ODU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.9%
58.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.0%
56.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ODU, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE