WED 21:00 ET|AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U42.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
3-9
7
6
22
0%
62
3
19.3
+145
+4.0
HOME
27
10-5
17
67
24
84%
10
37
23.3
-170
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALSHSU13—NMSU27
CLOSED NMSU -4.0TOTAL 42.5NMSU COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
SHSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NMSU
SHSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NMSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL42.5
SPREADNMSU -4.0
IMPLIED — SHSU19.3
IMPLIED — NMSU23.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT18 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 18 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
SHSURECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.2
SAM HOUSTON won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NMSURECORD MATCHES
10-4ACTUALvs9.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
NEW MEXICO STATE won 10 of 14 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAM HOUSTONNEW MEXICO STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
RB0%Dezmon JacksonRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Tony WilliamsWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Keaton AltmanOL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL0%Cameron PlummerDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DB0%Darrel Hawkins-WilliamsDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
RBJohn Gentry · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATECoco Brown · SIGNEE ★3DJ McKinney · SIGNEEINTACT
WR/TELonnie Adkism · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Gilchrist · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLRhett Larson · PORTAL ★3 · SMUKolt Dieterich · SIGNEE ★3Easton Fulton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLAkeem Smith · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJaden Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOJayden Gaines · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DBJamarie Wiggins · SIGNEE ★3Chantson Prox · SIGNEE ★3D'Marea Weaver · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAM HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959839583 OF 8 GRADED
RB3737591796 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE383850691812 OF 18 GRADED
OL545444501511 OF 15 GRADED
DL252531521610 OF 16 GRADED
LB373740871410 OF 14 GRADED
DB333337262318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE7th7
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%20
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 0/16 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+71 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 5 IN / 1 OUT—
COACH STATUS——
DEV TRANSITION MIX44%86
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NMSUJERRY KILL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SHSUK.C. KEELERFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSHSU OFFENSENMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE SHSU QUARTERBACKSn=85% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE SHSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1550% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAM HOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE SHSU RUNNING BACKSn=983% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554672%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAM HOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE SHSU PASS CATCHERSn=1831% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NMSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM49% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
−31
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SHSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NMSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.5%
63.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.5%
67.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SHSU, ORANGE = NMSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE